Greek Super League · Sun · 18:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Olympiakos are priced at 2.07, implying roughly 48% win probability and clear favourite status over Panathinaikos.
Panathinaikos at 3.7 imply about 27% win probability, with the model's fair probability set slightly higher at 28%, producing a 3.92% value edge.
The draw at 3.3 implies close to 30%, keeping that outcome competitive relative to the away price.
The model's headline recommendation is Under 2.5 goals at 1.72, carrying an implied confidence of 55% though its own calculated edge is negative at -5.85%, meaning the price is not clearly favourable by the model's own edge metric.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 18.1% | 5.51 |
| 0-0 | 13.9% | 7.19 |
| 1-1 | 12.1% | 8.25 |
| 2-0 | 11.8% | 8.45 |
| 0-1 | 9.3% | 10.76 |
| 2-1 | 7.9% | 12.64 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.30 and 0.67. These six scorelines cover 73% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · OP | X | 2 · PAN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.17 | 3.30 | 3.39 |
| Betsson | 2.20 | 3.15 | 3.25 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| 888sport | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.16 | 3.10 | 3.15 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Olympiakos Piraeus host Panathinaikos in a Greek Super League derby where the betting market clearly favours the home side. Olympiakos are priced at 2.07 with the best available odds, which implies a win probability of roughly 48%, making them clear favourites over Panathinaikos at 3.7 (around 27% implied) and the draw at 3.3 (about 30% implied). Those numbers show a competitive spread across all three outcomes despite the home tilt. Away from the match-result market, our model flags Under 2.5 goals at 1.72 as its recommended angle, suggesting the goal expectancy in this fixture may lean toward a tighter, lower-scoring contest rather than a one-sided affair. Bettors weighing the result market alongside the goals market get a fuller picture of how oddsmakers see this Athens-Piraeus rivalry unfolding.
Verdict: The market makes Olympiakos the clear favourite, with Panathinaikos offering a modest value edge at 3.7 according to the model's fair-probability estimate. The Under 2.5 goals pick carries decent implied confidence but a negative edge score, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk selection rather than a high-conviction one.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:00 | Panetolikos Agrinio v PAOK Thessaloniki | 170.00 | 29.00 | 1.03 |
| 10 Oct 15:00 | PAOK Thessaloniki v Kalamata FC | 1.25 | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | AEK Athens v OFI Crete | 1.20 | 6.10 | 14.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Asteras Tripolis v Atromitos Athens | 2.45 | 3.16 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | Iraklis FC v Levadiakos | 2.47 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | AE Kifisia FC v Panetolikos Agrinio | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Aris Thessaloniki v Volos FC | 1.77 | 3.60 | 5.15 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Levadiakos v Volos FC | 2.11 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.70, with a 55% confidence rating.
Olympiakos are the market favourites at odds of 2.07, which implies roughly a 48% chance of victory, ahead of Panathinaikos at 3.7 (about 27%) and the draw at 3.3 (about 30%).
According to the model, Panathinaikos' fair win probability is about 28%, slightly above the market-implied 27% from their 3.7 price, producing a modest value edge of 3.92%.
The model highlights Under 2.5 goals at 1.72 as its recommended bet, with an implied confidence of 55%, though its own edge calculation comes in negative at -5.85%, so it is not a standout value play by that measure.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos takes place Sun · 18:00 in the Greek Super League.
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