League One · Sat · 11:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Leicester City are the favourites at 2.08 (about 48% implied), but the price reflects a contest rather than a heavy mismatch.
Notts County at 3.65 imply roughly 27%, with the draw priced close by at 3.4 (about 29%), underlining a tight-looking market.
The gap between the home win and the draw is narrow, suggesting the market rates a stalemate almost as likely as a Notts County victory.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.81 shows a negative value edge of -4.32%, so the model sees confidence in a low-scoring game but no pricing advantage.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester City | 2.08 | Betsson | 48.1% |
| Notts County | 3.75 | Betfair | 26.7% |
| Draw | 3.45 | Betfair | 29.0% |
Notts County host Leicester City in this League One fixture, and the market leans clearly toward the visitors. Leicester City are priced at 2.08 with Betsson, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 48%, making them the favourites without being overwhelming choices. Notts County sit at 3.65 (Betfair), implying about 27%, while the draw is available at 3.4 (Betfair), around 29% in probability terms. That spread points to a game the market sees as competitive rather than one-sided. Our model does not flag value on the match result; instead its recommended angle is Under 2.5 goals at 1.81 with LeoVegas (SE), carrying a market-implied confidence near 53%. It is worth noting the value edge here reads at -4.32%, meaning the price offers no positive expected value on paper. Treat the numbers as context and manage your stakes sensibly rather than chasing the total.
Verdict: The lean is toward Under 2.5 goals at 1.81, backed by a market-implied confidence around 53%. Be aware the value edge is negative at -4.32%, so this is a modest-confidence total rather than a priced-in advantage. Stake responsibly and only within a bankroll you are comfortable risking.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug 11:30 | Reading v Luton | 3.32 | 3.45 | 2.23 |
| 15 Aug 11:30 | Oxford United v Milton Keynes Dons | 2.15 | 3.35 | 3.51 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Huddersfield Town v Wimbledon | 1.63 | 4.09 | 5.06 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Plymouth Argyle v Stockport County FC | 2.29 | 3.45 | 3.09 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Blackpool v Wycombe Wanderers | 2.65 | 3.45 | 2.85 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Bradford City v Peterborough United | 1.76 | 3.95 | 5.10 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Barnsley v Bromley FC | 1.93 | 3.60 | 3.92 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Leyton Orient v Sheffield Wednesday | 3.05 | 3.45 | 2.53 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.81, with a 53% confidence rating.
Leicester City are the favourites at 2.08 with Betsson, implying roughly a 48% chance. Notts County are outsiders at 3.65, around 27% implied.
The draw is priced at 3.4 with Betfair, which equates to an implied probability of about 29%. That is close to the price on a Notts County win.
No match-result value picks cleared our threshold. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.81 has a market-implied confidence near 53% but a negative value edge of -4.32%, so there is no positive expected value on the numbers.
Notts County vs Leicester City takes place Sat · 11:30 in the League One.
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