Liga Profesional · Sat · 20:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Lanus is priced as narrow favourite at 2.7, implying about 37% win probability, just ahead of Newells and the draw at 2.93 apiece (roughly 34% each).
The near-identical draw and Newells prices point to a genuinely balanced match-result market with no standout selection.
The Over 1.5 goals line at 1.57 implies a 63.7% break-even probability, above the model's own 60% confidence estimate, resulting in a negative value edge of -5.09%.
No value picks were flagged against the wider market consensus for this fixture, reinforcing the overall balanced pricing.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.5% | 7.42 |
| 0-1 | 13.0% | 7.69 |
| 1-0 | 12.3% | 8.10 |
| 0-0 | 11.9% | 8.40 |
| 1-2 | 7.4% | 13.59 |
| 0-2 | 7.1% | 14.08 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.04 and 1.09. These six scorelines cover 65% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · NOB | X | 2 · LAN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.96 | 2.92 | 2.68 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.62 |
| Betsson | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.62 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.90 | 2.86 | 2.62 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.45 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.65 | 2.75 | 2.40 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Newells Old Boys host Lanus in a Liga Profesional clash where the bookmakers see very little to separate the two sides. The best available prices - 2.93 for a Newells win, 2.7 for Lanus, and 2.93 for the draw - translate into implied probabilities of roughly 34% for Newells, 37% for Lanus and 34% for a draw, with Lanus holding the slimmest of edges as market favourite. With no clear gap between the three outcomes, this looks like a tightly contested match on paper. Away from the 1x2 market, the recommended angle from our model is Over 1.5 goals at 1.57, a line that implies a 63.7% break-even probability but which the model rates at a 60% confidence level, producing a modest negative value edge. It is a fixture where goals, rather than a specific match winner, appear to be the more consistently priced outcome.
Verdict: The match-result market offers no clear favourite, with Lanus only marginally ahead of Newells and the draw. The suggested Over 1.5 goals bet at 1.57 carries a reasonably high implied probability but shows a slight negative value edge, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk option rather than a strong-value play.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:45 | San Lorenzo v Boca Juniors | 17.50 | 3.10 | 1.65 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Platense v Newells Old Boys | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Rosario Central v Argentinos Juniors | 2.08 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
| 20 Sept 22:15 | Belgrano de Cordoba v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.48 | 4.20 | 10.50 |
| 21 Sept 00:30 | Velez Sarsfield BA v CA Tigre BA | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| 21 Sept 17:30 | Aldosivi Mar del Plata v Atlético Tucuman | 3.35 | 2.98 | 2.58 |
| 21 Sept 22:00 | Barracas Central v Independiente Rivadavia | 3.45 | 3.01 | 2.50 |
| 22 Sept 00:15 | Lanus v Estudiantes | 2.26 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.59, with a 60% confidence rating.
Lanus is the narrow market favourite at 2.7, implying about a 37% win probability, just ahead of Newells Old Boys and the draw, both priced at 2.93 (around 34% each).
The draw is priced at 2.93 with 1xBet, the same price as a Newells Old Boys win, implying roughly a 34% probability.
No value picks were flagged above the market consensus threshold for the 1x2 market. The recommended Over 1.5 goals bet at 1.57 actually shows a slight negative edge of -5.09%, so it is not a clear-cut value bet despite its relatively high implied probability.
Newells Old Boys vs Lanus takes place Sat · 20:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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