Liga Profesional · Sat · 22:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Newells Old Boys are favourites at 2.13 (about 47% implied), but the gap to the draw at 2.96 is modest, signalling a competitive fixture.
Deportivo Riestra are priced at 4.3, implied near 23%, yet our model rates their fair probability at 25%, giving a positive edge of roughly 8.87% on the away win.
The draw at 2.96 (around 34% implied) is not far behind the favourite, reinforcing that no outcome is heavily one-sided.
The recommended Over 1.5 goals at 1.66 carries about 57% implied confidence but a negative value edge of -4.84%, so it prices efficiently rather than offering surplus value.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Riestra to win | 4.30 | +8.6% | 25% | 61 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Riestra | 4.30 | Codere (IT) | 23.3% |
| Newells Old Boys | 2.12 | 1xBet | 47.2% |
| Draw | 2.96 | 1xBet | 33.8% |
This Liga Profesional fixture sees Newells Old Boys installed as the home favourite against Deportivo Riestra. The best available price of 2.13 on Newells translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 47%, marking them as the side the market trusts most, though far from a runaway pick. Deportivo Riestra are the outsiders at 4.3, implied at about 23%, while the draw sits at 2.96, or around 34% in probability terms. That spread points to a contest with a clear favourite but plenty of room for the visitors or a stalemate. Our model's recommended bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.66, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 57%. Worth noting: the model flags a negative value edge of -4.84% on that line, so it is a lean on likely goal activity rather than a standout price. The pricing overall suggests a competitive match rather than a formality.
Verdict: The model leans to Over 1.5 goals at 1.66, backed by roughly 57% implied confidence in enough goal activity. Be aware the value edge is negative at -4.84%, so this is a probability-based lean, not a value play. Moderate risk; the separately flagged Riestra edge is the value angle. Stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Estudiantes | 2.16 | 3.10 | 4.34 |
| 6 Aug 00:15 | CA Tigre BA v Belgrano de Cordoba | 2.66 | 2.92 | 3.40 |
| 6 Aug 22:00 | Union Santa Fe v Lanus | 2.40 | 3.09 | 3.65 |
| 7 Aug 22:30 | Rosario Central v Aldosivi Mar del Plata | 1.55 | 3.90 | 8.60 |
| 8 Aug 00:45 | Independiente Rivadavia v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.56 | 4.02 | 7.80 |
| 8 Aug 17:45 | Atlético Tucuman v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.83 | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| 8 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Estudiantes | 3.40 | 2.72 | 2.62 |
| 8 Aug 20:00 | CA Tigre BA v River Plate | 3.42 | 3.05 | 2.38 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 1.5 goals at odds of 2.25, with a 42% confidence rating.
Newells Old Boys are the favourites at a best price of 2.13, which implies roughly a 47% chance. Deportivo Riestra are the outsiders at 4.3, around 23% implied.
The draw is available at 2.96 with 1xBet, which corresponds to an implied probability of about 34%. That is close enough to the favourite's price to suggest a genuinely competitive game.
Our model flags Deportivo Riestra at 4.3 as the value angle, with a fair probability of 25% and an edge of about 8.87%. The recommended Over 1.5 goals at 1.66 has a negative edge of -4.84%, so it is a confidence lean rather than a value bet.
Newells Old Boys vs Deportivo Riestra takes place Sat · 22:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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