English ⚽ MLS 🕒 Sat · 23:30
Our tip
Under 3.5 goals
Odds
1.80
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue · 57%
AI Value edge 3.24% · best price at 1xBet
Bet at 1xBet Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Match-result odds are tightly clustered: St. Louis City (2.50) is only marginally preferred over New York Red Bulls (2.65), with implied probabilities of about 40% versus 37.7%.
02
The draw at 4.05 implies roughly 24.7% probability, keeping all three outcomes within realistic reach based on the market alone.
03
No side clears the site's value threshold in the 1X2 market, so no straight match-winner pick is flagged as value here.
04
The Under 3.5 goals line at 1.81 is the model's lone recommended angle, with a 57% confidence read against an implied 55.25% from the price, giving a 3.28% edge.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 62%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.8% | 9.27 |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | 11.86 |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | 11.99 |
| 1-0 | 7.0% | 14.33 |
| 0-1 | 6.9% | 14.49 |
| 2-2 | 6.5% | 15.34 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.56 and 1.55. These six scorelines cover 48% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
NYR New York Red Bulls WWLDD
18 Sept 26 @ New York City FC 1-0
12 Sept 26 @ Columbus Crew SC 1-0
10 Sept 26 @ Los Angeles FC 0-2
6 Sept 26 @ Seattle Sounders FC 0-0
22 Aug 26 vs Chicago Fire 1-1
SLC St. Louis City SC WWDWD
20 Sept 26 vs Toronto FC 3-1
13 Sept 26 vs Minnesota United FC 4-2
10 Sept 26 @ Portland Timbers 2-2
6 Sept 26 @ Vancouver Whitecaps FC 3-1
30 Aug 26 vs FC Dallas 3-3
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 · NYR | X | 2 · SLC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.82 | 3.91 | 2.38 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.65 | 3.90 | 2.48 |
| Pinnacle | 2.78 | 3.95 | 2.29 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.78 | 3.95 | 2.29 |
| GTbets | 2.70 | 3.93 | 2.34 |
| Coolbet | 2.65 | 4.00 | 2.30 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City SC: match preview
St. Louis City SC and New York Red Bulls meet in an MLS fixture where the bookmakers see very little separating the two sides. Best prices have St. Louis City marginally favoured at 2.50 with 1xBet, implying a probability of roughly 40 percent, while New York Red Bulls sit close behind at 2.65 (Nordic Bet), implying around 37.7 percent. The draw is priced at 4.05, suggesting a market view of about 24.7 percent for a stalemate. With the three outcomes so tightly bunched, this looks like a genuinely open contest rather than a clear favourite-underdog matchup. Rather than backing a match result, our model points to the goals market, recommending Under 3.5 goals at 1.81 with 1xBet, a price the model rates as carrying a modest value edge of 3.28 percent over its own 57 percent confidence estimate.
Verdict: With the match-result market too close to call, the Under 3.5 goals selection at 1.81 stands out as the more defensible angle, backed by a modest 3.28% edge. It is not a high-confidence certainty, so this should be treated as a measured, low-to-moderate risk stake rather than a heavy commitment.
Upcoming MLS fixtures
All MLS tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Nashville SC v Toronto FC | 1.50 | 4.88 | 6.30 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City SC?+
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.80, with a 57% confidence rating.
Who is favourite between New York Red Bulls and St. Louis City SC?+
St. Louis City SC are the marginal market favourite at 2.50, implying about 40% probability, just ahead of New York Red Bulls at 2.65 (around 37.7%). The gap is small, so it is not a strong favourite situation.
What is the draw priced at in this MLS fixture?+
The draw is available at 4.05 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 24.7% chance of the match ending level according to the market.
Is there value in betting on this New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City SC game?+
No match-result selection clears the site's value threshold, but the model does flag value in the goals market, recommending Under 3.5 goals at 1.81 with a 3.28% edge over the implied probability.
When does the match kick off?+
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City SC takes place Sat · 23:30 in the MLS.