MLS · Wed · 23:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Nashville SC are the favourites at 2.32 (about 43% implied), with New York Red Bulls at 2.82 (about 35%), a moderate rather than large gap.
The draw is priced at 4.23, implying roughly 24%, though our model rates its fair probability at 26%, giving an edge of 11.78%.
The recommended Under 3.0 goals pick at 2.03 shows a negative value edge of -5.73%, meaning the price sits slightly below our estimated fair value.
Market-implied confidence on the Under is around 46%, marking it as a close call rather than a strong signal.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.23 | +6.1% | 25% | 59 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 2.32 | Betsson | 43.1% |
| New York Red Bulls | 2.82 | Betsson | 35.5% |
| Draw | 4.23 | 1xBet | 23.6% |
This MLS meeting between New York Red Bulls and Nashville SC sees the visitors installed as narrow market favourites. Nashville are priced at 2.32 with Betsson, implying roughly a 43% chance, while the Red Bulls sit at 2.82, or about 35% in probability terms. The draw is a longer proposition at 4.23, translating to close to 24%. That spread points to a matchup the bookmakers consider fairly open, with a modest edge toward Nashville rather than a commanding one. Our model's recommended selection is Under 3.0 goals at 2.03 with Coolbet, carrying market-implied confidence of around 46%. It is worth noting the value edge on that pick reads negative at -5.73%, so it is more a lean on game profile than a standout price. Separately, our figures flag the draw as holding the clearest value on the card, with a fair probability of 26% against a best price of 4.23.
Verdict: The model leans to Under 3.0 goals at 2.03, but with a negative value edge of -5.73% this is a marginal, low-conviction call rather than a priced advantage. The draw at 4.23 offers the clearest value on paper. Treat both as modest plays and stake within your limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 20:30 | New England Revolution v Houston Dynamo | 2.55 | 3.86 | 2.82 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati | 2.33 | 4.56 | 2.75 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | CF Montreal v D.C. United | 2.25 | 3.97 | 3.20 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Toronto FC v New England Revolution | 2.35 | 3.96 | 3.05 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Columbus Crew SC | 2.17 | 4.04 | 3.35 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York Red Bulls | 1.83 | 4.55 | 3.95 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Nashville SC v Inter Miami CF | 2.15 | 4.28 | 3.10 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Houston Dynamo v LA Galaxy | 1.74 | 4.44 | 4.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.0 goals at odds of 2.03, with a 46% confidence rating.
Nashville SC are the favourites at 2.32, implying about a 43% chance. New York Red Bulls are priced at 2.82, or roughly 35%.
The best available draw price is 4.23 with 1xBet, implying around 24%. Our model rates its fair probability slightly higher at 26%, giving a value edge of 11.78%.
Our figures highlight the draw at 4.23 as the strongest value, with an edge of 11.78%. The recommended Under 3.0 goals pick at 2.03 actually shows a negative edge of -5.73%, so it is a lean rather than a value play.
New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC takes place Wed · 23:30 in the MLS.
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