English ⚽ MLS 🕒 10 Sept 2026
Our tip
New York City FC to win
Odds
2.40
LostResult
1-2Final score
-1.00uProfit
43%Pre-match conf.
-9.77%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at LeoVegas (SE)
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
NYCFC are priced as favourites at 2.09, implying close to a 48% chance of victory according to the market.
02
New England Revolution at 3.8 and the draw at 4.06 are priced closely together, both implying probabilities in the mid-20s percent range.
03
Value analysis flags New England (9.47% edge) and the draw (7.34% edge) as the two outcomes where the model's fair probability estimate diverges most from the market price.
04
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.72 carries a 57% implied confidence but shows a slightly negative edge of -2.52%, meaning the market price is roughly in line with, or marginally ahead of, the model's own valuation.
Team form
NYC New York City FC LWLDD
18 Sept 26 vs New York Red Bulls 0-1
13 Sept 26 @ Real Salt Lake 2-0
10 Sept 26 vs New England Revolution 1-2
4 Sept 26 vs Nashville SC 0-0
23 Aug 26 @ New England Revolution 1-1
NER New England Revolution WWWLW
19 Sept 26 vs Orlando City SC 4-2
13 Sept 26 @ Chicago Fire 2-1
10 Sept 26 @ New York City FC 2-1
6 Sept 26 @ LA Galaxy 1-2
30 Aug 26 @ Columbus Crew SC 3-1
Head-to-head: New York City FC v New England Revolution
Full H2H history → L 10 Sept 26
New York City FC 1-2 New England RevolutionMLS
D 23 Aug 26
New England Revolution 1-1 New York City FCMLS
W/D/L shown from New York City FC's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
New York City FC vs New England Revolution: pre-match preview
New York City FC host New England Revolution in an MLS fixture where the market leans clearly toward the home side. NYCFC's best available price of 2.09 implies a win probability of roughly 48%, making them the clear favourite according to the odds. New England, priced at 3.8, carries an implied probability near 26%, while the draw at 4.06 sits close behind at about 25%. Those numbers suggest bookmakers see this as a competitive game despite the home team's edge, rather than a lopsided mismatch. Away from the result market, the recommended angle from our model points toward goals rather than the outcome itself: Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.72, reflecting a market-implied confidence of 57% that this game produces at least three goals. That price point gives bettors a alternative way to engage with the fixture beyond picking a winner outright.
Verdict: The model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 as its lead suggestion, backed by 57% implied confidence, though the edge is marginally negative, so this isn't flagged as a clear value play. New England and the draw show stronger value edges on paper. Stake sizing should stay modest given the mixed signals.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 1-2, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming MLS fixtures
All MLS tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for New York City FC vs New England Revolution?+
Our tip was New York City FC to win at odds of 2.40.
Who is favourite in the NYCFC vs New England Revolution match?+
NYCFC are the market favourites, with best odds of 2.09 implying roughly a 48% win probability, compared to about 26% for New England Revolution.
What are the odds on a draw between NYCFC and New England?+
The best available draw price is 4.06, which implies a probability of around 25%, close to New England's implied win chance.
Is there value in betting on this NYCFC vs New England Revolution fixture?+
According to the data, New England (3.8 odds, 9.47% edge) and the draw (4.06 odds, 7.34% edge) show the largest gaps between market price and modelled fair probability, while the Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 1.72 has a slightly negative edge of -2.52%.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 1-2 (-1.00u at flat stakes).