MLS · Sat · 20:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
New England Revolution are the market favourite at 2.45, implying about 41%, versus Houston Dynamo at 2.95, roughly 34%.
The relatively short gap between the two match-result prices points to a competitive, closely priced fixture.
The draw at 3.6 implies around 28%, a typical mid-range price that keeps all three outcomes live.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.82 shows a negative value edge of -2.93%, indicating no market advantage despite the 53% implied confidence.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 3.86 | +5.0% | 27% | 59 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo | 2.82 | Nordic Bet | 35.5% |
| New England Revolution | 2.55 | LeoVegas (SE) | 39.2% |
| Draw | 3.86 | 1xBet | 25.9% |
This MLS matchup puts New England Revolution up against Houston Dynamo, and the market leans towards the hosts. New England are the shorter price at 2.45 with Coolbet, translating to an implied probability of roughly 41%, while Houston Dynamo sit at 2.95 (1xBet), about 34% in probability terms. The draw is priced at 3.6, or around 28% implied. Those numbers describe a fairly open contest rather than a clear favourite, with New England only modestly preferred. Our model's attention is on goals rather than the outright winner: it flags Over 2.5 goals at 1.82 (1xBet), carrying a market-implied confidence near 53%. That said, the calculated value edge is negative at -2.93%, so this is not a spot where the price sits in the bettor's favour. Treat it as a lean informed by the data, not a strong value signal, and stake with care.
Verdict: The model's pick is Over 2.5 goals at 1.82, with around 53% implied confidence. Because the value edge is negative at -2.93%, this is a modest lean rather than a value play. Consider it higher risk, keep stakes measured, and remember outcomes remain uncertain.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati | 2.33 | 4.56 | 2.75 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | CF Montreal v D.C. United | 2.25 | 3.97 | 3.20 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Toronto FC v New England Revolution | 2.35 | 3.96 | 3.05 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Columbus Crew SC | 2.17 | 4.04 | 3.35 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York Red Bulls | 1.83 | 4.55 | 3.95 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Nashville SC v Inter Miami CF | 2.15 | 4.28 | 3.10 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Houston Dynamo v LA Galaxy | 1.74 | 4.44 | 4.75 |
| 16 Aug 01:30 | Colorado Rapids v Sporting Kansas City | 1.41 | 5.71 | 7.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.07, with a 47% confidence rating.
New England Revolution are the slight favourite at 2.45 (about 41% implied), with Houston Dynamo at 2.95 (about 34%). The margin is narrow, so the market sees a fairly even game.
The draw is priced at 3.6 with Coolbet, which implies roughly a 28% chance. That is a standard mid-range figure that keeps a stalemate realistically in play.
The model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 1.82 with about 53% implied confidence, but the value edge is negative at -2.93%. That means the price does not offer a statistical edge, so it is best treated as a lean rather than a value bet.
New England Revolution vs Houston Dynamo takes place Sat · 20:30 in the MLS.
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