Eredivisie · Sat · 14:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
The 1.44 price on NEC Nijmegen implies about a 69% win probability, marking them as strong favourites in the eyes of the market.
SC Telstar at 7.5 carry only around a 13% implied chance, one of the widest gaps you will see in a single fixture's match-result pricing.
The draw is priced at 5.3, roughly a 19% implied probability, sitting between the two outcomes as expected against a heavy favourite.
The recommended Under 3.5 goals selection at 1.8 has a market-implied confidence of about 53% but a negative value edge of -3.72%, so it is a modest lean rather than a standout value spot.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.4% | 10.67 |
| 1-1 | 8.0% | 12.56 |
| 3-1 | 7.3% | 13.61 |
| 2-0 | 7.3% | 13.68 |
| 1-0 | 6.2% | 16.08 |
| 2-2 | 6.0% | 16.67 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.35 and 1.28. These six scorelines cover 44% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from NEC Nijmegen's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 1.52 | Betsson | 65.8% |
| SC Telstar | 7.50 | Unibet (NL) | 13.3% |
| Draw | 5.10 | Unibet (NL) | 19.6% |
NEC Nijmegen open as clear favourites at home against SC Telstar in this Eredivisie clash, with the market pricing them at 1.44. That equates to roughly a 69% implied chance of a home win before margin, underlining how strongly the market leans toward NEC. SC Telstar are the outsiders at 7.5, implying around a 13% chance, while the draw sits at 5.3, worth about 19% in implied terms. The gap between the two sides is substantial according to the prices. Our model does not flag a value pick in the match-result market; instead it leans to the goals line, recommending Under 3.5 goals at 1.8 with market-implied confidence near 53%. Note that the calculated value edge on that selection is negative (-3.72%), so it reads more as a lean than a strong edge. This preview is framed entirely around those market numbers rather than any team news.
Verdict: The model leans to Under 3.5 goals at 1.8, backed by roughly 53% implied confidence. Be aware the value edge is negative at -3.72%, so this is a low-conviction lean rather than an edge play. Stake responsibly and treat it as one modest angle, not a strong recommendation.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 18:00 | SC Cambuur v Excelsior | 2.60 | 3.75 | 2.65 |
| 8 Aug 16:45 | Go Ahead Eagles v Willem II | 1.71 | 4.30 | 5.00 |
| 8 Aug 18:00 | PSV Eindhoven v Fortuna Sittard | 1.24 | 8.60 | 14.50 |
| 8 Aug 19:00 | AZ Alkmaar v ADO Den Haag | 1.50 | 4.90 | 6.75 |
| 9 Aug 10:15 | Sparta Rotterdam v Feyenoord | 5.10 | 4.30 | 1.72 |
| 9 Aug 12:30 | Groningen v FC Utrecht | 2.43 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| 9 Aug 12:30 | FC Zwolle v Ajax | 7.00 | 4.80 | 1.52 |
| 9 Aug 14:45 | Heerenveen v FC Twente Enschede | 3.20 | 4.00 | 2.19 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.10, with a 46% confidence rating.
NEC Nijmegen are the clear favourites at 1.44, which implies roughly a 69% chance of a home win. SC Telstar are the outsiders at 7.5.
The draw is priced at 5.3 with Tipico, implying around a 19% chance based on the market.
No match-result value pick cleared our threshold, and the recommended Under 3.5 goals at 1.8 actually shows a negative value edge of -3.72%. It is a lean at best, so approach with caution.
NEC Nijmegen vs SC Telstar takes place Sat · 14:30 in the Eredivisie.
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