MLS · Sun · 00:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Nashville SC are priced at 1.42, implying an approximate 70% win probability and clear favourite status in this MLS meeting.
Toronto FC's 7.75 price implies only around a 13% chance of an away win, reflecting a wide gap between the two sides in the market's eyes.
The draw at 5.25 implies roughly 19% probability, sitting between the two win outcomes but still well behind Nashville's implied share.
No side of the match-result market clears the site's value threshold, but Under 3.5 Goals at 1.74 shows a 4.35% edge with 60% model confidence.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 11.1% | 9.00 |
| 1-0 | 10.9% | 9.17 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.11 |
| 1-1 | 9.7% | 10.30 |
| 3-0 | 7.5% | 13.26 |
| 3-1 | 6.7% | 14.88 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.04 and 0.89. These six scorelines cover 56% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Nashville SC's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · NS | X | 2 · TF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.50 | 4.84 | 6.30 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.50 | 4.70 | 6.25 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.47 | 4.88 | 6.00 |
| Coolbet | 1.47 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.46 | 4.88 | 5.93 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.46 | 4.55 | 6.30 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Nashville SC host Toronto FC in an MLS fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about which side is expected to come out on top. Nashville are priced at 1.42 with 1xBet, which translates to an implied win probability of roughly 70%, making them clear favourites. Toronto FC, at 7.75 with Coolbet, are given only about a 13% chance, while the draw at 5.25 sits around 19%. With the outcome market so heavily tilted, our model looks past the result itself and points to the total-goals market instead, recommending Under 3.5 Goals at 1.74 with 1xBet. That price implies a break-even probability near 57.5%, and the model's own confidence sits a touch higher at 60%, producing a modest value edge of about 4.35%. It is a measured pick rather than a strong statement on how the match will unfold.
Verdict: The recommended play is Under 3.5 Goals at 1.74, backed by a modest 4.35% value edge and 60% model confidence. It is not a heavily lopsided market like the win line, so treat it as a measured, moderate-confidence selection rather than a near-certainty, and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.0 goals at odds of 1.74, with a 54% confidence rating.
Nashville SC are strong favourites, priced at 1.42, which implies roughly a 70% chance of victory according to the market.
The draw is available at 5.25 with Coolbet, implying an approximate 19% probability.
The match-result market shows no pick above the site's value threshold, but the Under 3.5 Goals market offers a recommended bet at 1.74 with a 4.35% edge and 60% model confidence.
Nashville SC vs Toronto FC takes place Sun · 00:30 in the MLS.
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