Serie A · Sat · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Napoli are strongly favoured at 1.45, implying roughly a 69% chance of victory according to the market
Frosinone's 7.8 price implies only around a 13% win probability, reflecting a wide gap between the two sides
The draw is priced at 5.1, translating to an implied probability of about 20%
The Over 3.0 goals recommendation carries a -4.21% value edge, indicating the model does not rate it as good value despite highlighting it
| Bookmaker | 1 · NAP | X | 2 · FRO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.49 | 4.94 | 7.10 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.43 | 4.70 | 7.50 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.43 | 4.70 | 7.50 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.44 | 4.80 | 6.90 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.46 | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| Betsson | 1.47 | 4.35 | 6.90 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Napoli host Frosinone in Serie A with the odds leaving little doubt about who the market considers the stronger side. Napoli are priced at 1.45 to win, which implies a probability of roughly 69%, while Frosinone's 7.8 price points to a much slimmer chance of around 13%. The draw sits at 5.1, implying roughly 20% probability, a figure that keeps some space open for a tighter contest than the headline odds suggest. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention shifts to goal totals, recommending Over 3.0 goals at 2.01 with Pinnacle. That price implies a market confidence of about 48% for the total, though the calculated value edge on the pick is actually negative at -4.21%, meaning the model does not see this as a clear value opportunity despite flagging it as the most relevant angle for this fixture.
Verdict: The recommended Over 3.0 goals bet at 2.01 reflects a goal-heavy angle rather than a match-result play, but its negative value edge of -4.21% suggests the odds may not fully compensate for the risk. With no standout value picks elsewhere and Napoli heavily favoured, bettors should treat this as a moderate-risk, data-informed option rather than a confident recommendation.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | AC Milan v Lecce | 1.26 | 6.60 | 16.00 |
| 10 Oct 13:00 | Genoa v Fiorentina | 3.25 | 3.48 | 2.45 |
| 10 Oct 16:00 | Inter Milan v Parma | 1.14 | 10.60 | 22.00 |
| 11 Oct 10:30 | Como v AS Roma | 2.64 | 3.67 | 2.88 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lecce v Bologna | 4.21 | 3.50 | 2.08 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lazio v Monza | 1.77 | 3.81 | 5.40 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Sassuolo v AC Milan | 4.58 | 3.93 | 1.85 |
| 11 Oct 18:45 | Cagliari v Juventus | 6.50 | 4.25 | 1.62 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +11 | 13 |
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 6 | Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Milan | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 9 | Napoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Udinese | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Torino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.75 goals at odds of 1.80, with a 53% confidence rating.
Napoli are clear favourites at odds of 1.45, which implies an approximate 69% win probability according to the market.
The draw is available at 5.1, implying roughly a 20% chance of that outcome based on current odds.
The model highlights Over 3.0 goals at 2.01 as its recommended bet, but this carries a negative value edge of -4.21%, and no other picks met the value threshold in this fixture.
Napoli vs Frosinone takes place Sat · 18:45 in the Serie A.
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