J1 League · Sat · 10:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Nagoya Grampus are favourites at 2.1 (about 48% implied), a moderate rather than commanding edge over the field.
Shimizu S Pulse at 3.5 (roughly 29%) and the draw at 3.65 (around 27%) are priced closely, suggesting the market sees real uncertainty behind the favourite.
The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.9 sits at roughly 51% implied confidence, essentially a coin-flip on the totals line.
The recommended bet shows a value edge of -3.52%, so it screens as slightly overpriced rather than an edge play.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus | 2.10 | 1xBet | 47.6% |
| Shimizu S Pulse | 3.50 | Coolbet | 28.6% |
| Draw | 3.65 | Pinnacle | 27.4% |
Nagoya Grampus host Shimizu S Pulse in this J1 League fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about which side it prefers. Nagoya are priced at 2.1 to win, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 48%, marking them as the clear favourite on home soil. Shimizu S Pulse are the outsiders at 3.5, or around 29% in implied terms, while the draw sits at 3.65, close to a 27% chance. Those figures paint a picture of a match the bookmakers expect Nagoya to shade without treating it as a formality. Our model, however, looks past the result market and toward goals: the recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.9, priced at about 51% implied confidence. Notably, this pick carries a negative value edge of -3.52%, meaning the price offers no measurable advantage over the market's own assessment on our numbers.
Verdict:
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 10:25 | Yokohama F Marinos v Kashima Antlers | 4.00 | 3.52 | 2.00 |
| 7 Aug 10:30 | Gamba Osaka v Urawa Red Diamonds | 2.44 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| 8 Aug 10:00 | FC Tokyo v FC Machida Zelvia | 2.48 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| 8 Aug 10:00 | Kashiwa Reysol v Mito HollyHock | 1.60 | 4.00 | 6.25 |
| 8 Aug 10:00 | Avispa Fukuoka v Vissel Kobe | 4.20 | 3.29 | 2.08 |
| 8 Aug 10:00 | Cerezo Osaka v Fagiano Okayama | 1.89 | 3.79 | 4.00 |
| 8 Aug 10:15 | Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC v JEF United Chiba | 1.47 | 4.50 | 7.00 |
| 9 Aug 09:00 | Tokyo Verdy v Kawasaki Frontale | 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.90, with a 51% confidence rating.
Nagoya Grampus vs Shimizu S Pulse takes place Sat · 10:00 in the J1 League.
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