Scottish Premiership · Sun · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Motherwell are favourites at 1.85 (about 54% implied), with Falkirk the outsiders at 4.04 (around 25%).
The draw is priced at 3.85 with Coolbet, implying roughly a 26% chance of honours even.
The recommended Over 2.75 goals line sits at 1.95, with a market-implied confidence near 49%.
The value edge on that goals bet is negative at -4.28%, and no picks cleared the value threshold against the market consensus.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falkirk F.C. | 4.50 | Betfair | 22.2% |
| Motherwell | 1.82 | Betsson | 54.9% |
| Draw | 3.90 | Betfair | 25.6% |
This Scottish Premiership clash sees Motherwell host Falkirk F.C., with the market leaning clearly towards the home side. Pinnacle prices Motherwell at 1.85, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 54%, marking them as the favourite. Falkirk are the outsiders at 4.04, implying around a 25% chance, while the draw sits at 3.85 with Coolbet, worth about 26% in probability terms. The gap between the two sides is meaningful without being extreme, suggesting the market expects a home edge rather than a mismatch. Our model's attention falls not on the result but on the goals total: Over 2.75 goals is available at 1.95 with Pinnacle, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 49%. That said, the value edge on this line reads at -4.28%, so it does not clear our value threshold, and no result-market picks stand out either.
Verdict: The model points to Over 2.75 goals at 1.95, but with a negative value edge of -4.28% and roughly coin-flip implied confidence, this is a marginal call rather than a standout. Treat it as a lean at best, stake modestly, and only bet within your usual limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 14:00 | Dundee FC v Aberdeen | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.66 |
| 8 Aug 14:00 | St Mirren v St Johnstone | 2.38 | 3.50 | 3.05 |
| 9 Aug 12:30 | Kilmarnock v Celtic | 7.40 | 5.60 | 1.43 |
| 9 Aug 14:00 | Hearts v Dundee United | 1.62 | 4.30 | 5.90 |
| 9 Aug 15:00 | Rangers v Hibernian | 1.55 | 4.50 | 5.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.75 goals at odds of 1.95, with a 49% confidence rating.
Motherwell are the favourites at 1.85 with Pinnacle, which implies about a 54% chance. Falkirk are the outsiders at 4.04, implying roughly 25%.
The draw is priced at 3.85 with Coolbet, which equates to a market-implied probability of around 26%.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 2.75 goals bet at 1.95 actually shows a negative edge of -4.28%, so value is limited here.
Motherwell vs Falkirk F.C. takes place Sun · 14:00 in the Scottish Premiership.
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