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አማርኛ ⚽ Primeira Liga 🕒 22 Aug 2026
AI Awaiting settlement — graded automatically once the final score lands
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Benfica's 1.16 price implies about an 86% win chance, marking them as overwhelming favourites in the eyes of the market.
02
Moreirense FC at 15.84 are given only around a 6% implied probability, one of the widest gaps you will see between two sides.
03
The draw is priced at 7.85, roughly a 13% implied chance, sitting between the two match-result outcomes.
04
The only flagged value is Under 3.25 goals at 1.88, with a model-estimated edge of about 8% and around 57% implied confidence.
Team form
MF Moreirense FC LDDLW
16 Aug 26 @ Arouca 0-4
9 Aug 26 vs Braga 2-2
16 May 26 vs AVS 0-0
11 May 26 @ Tondela 0-2
2 May 26 vs Amadora 3-2
BEN Benfica WDWDD
17 Aug 26 @ Casa Pia 7-0
9 Aug 26 vs Acad. Viseu 2-2
16 May 26 @ Estoril Praia 3-1
11 May 26 vs Braga 2-2
2 May 26 @ Famalicão 2-2
Head-to-head: Moreirense FC v Benfica
Full H2H history → L 25 Apr 26
SL Benfica 4-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
L 14 Dec 25
Moreirense 0-4 SL BenficaPrimeira Liga
W/D/L shown from Moreirense FC's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Moreirense FC vs Benfica: pre-match preview
This Primeira Liga meeting sees Moreirense FC host Benfica, and the market leaves little doubt about who it considers the stronger side. Benfica are priced at 1.16 with Pinnacle, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 86% for the away win. Moreirense FC, by contrast, sit way out at 15.84, an implied chance of only about 6%, while the draw is quoted at 7.85, or close to 13%. Those numbers reflect one of the most one-sided pre-match pictures you will find in a top-flight fixture. Rather than backing the heavily favoured result at short odds, our model looks to the total goals market. The recommended bet is Under 3.25 goals at 1.88, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 57% and an estimated value edge of just over 8%. That approach sidesteps the skinny favourite price and targets a line where the model sees an advantage.
Verdict: The model's pick is Under 3.25 goals at 1.88, supported by an estimated 8% value edge and roughly 57% confidence. It is a moderate-risk selection rather than a lock, since a heavy favourite can force a high-scoring game. Stake responsibly and keep to a sensible bankroll.
Upcoming Primeira Liga fixtures
All Primeira Liga tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 19:15 | Gil Vicente v Casa Pia | 1.76 | 3.70 | 6.00 |
| 28 Aug 19:15 | Rio Ave FC v Sporting Lisbon | 9.50 | 5.88 | 1.32 |
| 29 Aug 14:30 | Alverca v Santa Clara | 2.88 | 3.25 | 2.68 |
| 29 Aug 14:30 | Arouca v CS Maritimo | 2.45 | 3.23 | 3.20 |
| 29 Aug 17:00 | Académico de Viseu v FC Porto | 10.00 | 5.56 | 1.34 |
| 30 Aug 14:30 | Nacional v CF Estrela | 2.46 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| 30 Aug 17:00 | Casa Pia v Moreirense FC | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| 30 Aug 19:30 | Famalicão v Gil Vicente | 1.95 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Primeira Liga standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | Marítimo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Arouca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 6 | SL Benfica | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 4 |
| 7 | CD Nacional | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Vitória SC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Amadora | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Acad. Viseu | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Famalicão | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 17 | Estoril Praia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Moreirense FC vs Benfica?+
Our tip was Under 3.25 goals at odds of 1.88.
Who is the favourite for Moreirense FC vs Benfica?+
Benfica are the clear favourites at 1.16 with Pinnacle, an implied win probability of around 86%. Moreirense FC are big outsiders at 15.84.
What are the odds on the draw?+
The draw is priced at 7.85 with Pinnacle, which equates to a market-implied probability of roughly 13%.
Is there any betting value in this fixture?+
No match-result value picks cleared our threshold. The one flagged value is Under 3.25 goals at 1.88, with an estimated edge of about 8% and around 57% implied confidence.
Did the tip win?+
The match has not been settled yet — the result is graded automatically once the final score is available.