Primeira Liga · Fri · 19:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Sporting Lisbon are priced at 1.33 (about 75% implied), marking them as clear favourites over Rio Ave FC at 9.5 (about 11%).
The draw at 5.88 implies roughly a 17% chance, sitting between the two match-result outcomes as expected in a lopsided matchup.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.49 carries around 63% market-implied confidence but a negative value edge of about -6.36%, so no genuine value is indicated.
No value picks cleared the threshold against market consensus, suggesting the prices broadly reflect fair expectations.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RAF | X | 2 · SL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 9.50 | 5.50 | 1.32 |
| Betfair | 9.40 | 5.50 | 1.32 |
| Pinnacle | 8.23 | 5.88 | 1.31 |
| Tipico | 8.50 | 5.50 | 1.30 |
| Marathon Bet | 8.50 | 5.65 | 1.28 |
| 888sport | 8.00 | 5.50 | 1.30 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Sporting Lisbon travel to Rio Ave FC in the Primeira Liga as heavy favourites, and the market leaves little doubt about the pecking order. Sporting are priced at 1.33, which translates to an implied win probability of around 75%, while Rio Ave FC are big outsiders at 9.5, or roughly 11% in probability terms. The draw sits at 5.88, implying about 17%. That is a substantial gap and reflects a strong lean towards the visitors on paper. Rather than back the short-priced favourite, our model turns to the goals market: Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.49 with Betsson, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 63%. It is worth noting the value edge on that selection is negative at roughly -6.36%, meaning the price offers no measurable value against the model's own assessment. This is a preview based purely on the numbers, so treat the pricing as the starting point for your own judgement.
Verdict: The model points to Over 2.5 goals at 1.49, with implied confidence near 63%. However, the value edge is negative at about -6.36%, so this is not a value play by the numbers. Consider it a modest, higher-probability angle rather than a strong edge, and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 19:15 | Gil Vicente v Casa Pia | 1.76 | 3.70 | 6.00 |
| 29 Aug 14:30 | Alverca v Santa Clara | 2.88 | 3.25 | 2.68 |
| 29 Aug 14:30 | Arouca v CS Maritimo | 2.45 | 3.23 | 3.20 |
| 29 Aug 17:00 | Académico de Viseu v FC Porto | 10.00 | 5.56 | 1.34 |
| 30 Aug 14:30 | Nacional v CF Estrela | 2.46 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| 30 Aug 17:00 | Casa Pia v Moreirense FC | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| 30 Aug 19:30 | Famalicão v Gil Vicente | 1.95 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| 31 Aug 19:15 | Braga v Vitória SC | 1.73 | 4.00 | 5.40 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | Marítimo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Arouca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 6 | SL Benfica | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 4 |
| 7 | CD Nacional | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Vitória SC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Amadora | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Acad. Viseu | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Famalicão | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 17 | Estoril Praia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.50, with a 62% confidence rating.
Sporting Lisbon are clear favourites at 1.33, an implied probability of around 75%. Rio Ave FC are outsiders at 9.5, roughly 11%.
The draw is priced at 5.88 with Pinnacle, implying about a 17% chance.
Based on the data, no. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.49 shows a negative value edge of about -6.36%, and no value picks cleared the threshold against market consensus.
Rio Ave FC vs Sporting Lisbon takes place Fri · 19:15 in the Primeira Liga.
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