Primeira Liga · Sat · 17:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
FC Porto are strong favourites at 1.35 (about 74% implied), with Académico de Viseu long outsiders at 9.5 (roughly 11%).
The draw is priced at 5.3, an implied probability near 19%, reflecting the market's expectation of a Porto-led contest.
Our model's Over 3.0 goals pick at 1.96 sits at 49% implied confidence but shows a negative edge of -4.3%, so it is a modest lean.
The clearest value signal is on the draw: best price 5.3 against a fair probability estimate of 22%, an edge of about 18%.
| Bookmaker | 1 · ADV | X | 2 · FP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 10.00 | 5.50 | 1.30 |
| GTbets | 8.64 | 5.19 | 1.34 |
| Pinnacle | 9.63 | 5.56 | 1.29 |
| Tipico | 10.00 | 5.30 | 1.28 |
| Marathon Bet | 9.60 | 5.35 | 1.28 |
| Betsson | 9.70 | 4.80 | 1.31 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This Primeira Liga fixture sees Académico de Viseu host FC Porto, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Porto are priced at 1.35 with GTbets, implying roughly a 74% chance of winning, while the hosts sit far out at 9.5, an implied probability of only about 11%. The draw is available at 5.3, translating to around 19% in the market's eyes. That is a heavy tilt toward the visitors on paper. Our model's recommended bet steps away from the match result and looks at goals, flagging Over 3.0 goals at 1.96 with Coolbet, carrying a market-implied confidence of 49%. It is worth noting that this pick shows a negative value edge of -4.3%, so it is a lean rather than a strong price signal. Separately, the model highlights the draw at 5.3 as the standout value angle against the consensus.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Over 3.0 goals at 1.96, close to a coin-flip at 49% implied confidence but with a slightly negative value edge, making it a moderate-risk lean rather than a priced advantage. The draw at 5.3 offers the better value angle. Stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 19:15 | Gil Vicente v Casa Pia | 1.76 | 3.70 | 6.00 |
| 28 Aug 19:15 | Rio Ave FC v Sporting Lisbon | 9.50 | 5.88 | 1.32 |
| 29 Aug 14:30 | Alverca v Santa Clara | 2.88 | 3.25 | 2.68 |
| 29 Aug 14:30 | Arouca v CS Maritimo | 2.45 | 3.23 | 3.20 |
| 30 Aug 14:30 | Nacional v CF Estrela | 2.46 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| 30 Aug 17:00 | Casa Pia v Moreirense FC | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| 30 Aug 19:30 | Famalicão v Gil Vicente | 1.95 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| 31 Aug 19:15 | Braga v Vitória SC | 1.73 | 4.00 | 5.40 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | Marítimo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Arouca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 6 | SL Benfica | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 4 |
| 7 | CD Nacional | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Vitória SC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Amadora | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Acad. Viseu | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Famalicão | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 17 | Estoril Praia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.0 goals at odds of 1.98, with a 48% confidence rating.
FC Porto are clear favourites at 1.35, implying about a 74% chance of winning. Académico de Viseu are outsiders at 9.5, around 11% implied.
The draw is best priced at 5.3 with Tipico, an implied probability of roughly 19%. Our model rates its fair probability at 22%, giving an edge of about 18%.
The model's Over 3.0 goals pick at 1.96 carries a negative edge of -4.3%, so it is a lean rather than value. The draw at 5.3 is the standout value angle against the market consensus.
Académico de Viseu vs FC Porto takes place Sat · 17:00 in the Primeira Liga.
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