J1 League · Sat · 07:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Urawa Red Diamonds are priced at 2.05, implying close to a 49% chance of victory, the shortest price on the board.
Mito HollyHock sit at 3.63 (about 28% implied) and the draw at 3.85 (about 26% implied), keeping those two outcomes fairly close together.
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100%, reflecting the standard bookmaker margin built into these odds.
The recommended Over 2.75 goals bet at 1.98 carries a negative value edge of -4.09%, meaning the model does not see it as offering a clear pricing advantage despite being the standout selection.
| Bookmaker | 1 · MH | X | 2 · URD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.59 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Pinnacle | 3.63 | 3.33 | 2.10 |
| Coolbet | 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.08 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.60 | 3.25 | 2.08 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.50 | 3.32 | 2.05 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.20 | 3.35 | 2.12 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Urawa Red Diamonds travel to face Mito HollyHock in a J1 League meeting where the betting market leans clearly toward the visitors. Best available prices have Urawa at 2.05, Mito at 3.63, and the draw at 3.85, which translates to roughly a 49% implied chance for Urawa, 28% for Mito, and 26% for a stalemate. That gap suggests bookmakers see Urawa as the stronger side on the night, though the implied probabilities leave a reasonable share of outcomes uncovered. Away from the result market, our model's attention turns to goal supply: it flags Over 2.75 goals at 1.98 as the recommended angle, with a market-implied confidence of 48%. Notably, the value edge on this selection comes in slightly negative at -4.09%, so this is a case where the pick is worth noting rather than a clear-cut market inefficiency.
Verdict: The Over 2.75 goals price of 1.98 is the data's headline pick, backed by 48% implied confidence, but its negative value edge of -4.09% means it is not flagged as a strong market inefficiency. Treat it as a moderate-risk, data-informed option rather than a high-confidence angle, and size any stake accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 04:00 | Shimizu S Pulse v Gamba Osaka | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.18 |
| 17 Oct 05:00 | Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC v Kyoto Purple Sanga | 1.40 | 5.52 | 7.75 |
| 17 Oct 05:00 | Tokyo Verdy v FC Tokyo | 4.90 | 3.73 | 1.81 |
| 17 Oct 05:00 | JEF United Chiba v Yokohama F Marinos | 3.65 | 3.75 | 2.03 |
| 17 Oct 06:00 | Cerezo Osaka v Kawasaki Frontale | 2.82 | 3.85 | 2.40 |
| 17 Oct 06:00 | Kashima Antlers v V-Varen Nagasaki | 1.52 | 4.46 | 6.25 |
| 17 Oct 10:00 | Kashiwa Reysol v Nagoya Grampus | 1.62 | 4.36 | 5.25 |
| 18 Oct 04:55 | Fagiano Okayama v Vissel Kobe | 2.97 | 3.40 | 2.48 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.00, with a 48% confidence rating.
Urawa Red Diamonds are the clear market favourites at 2.05, implying roughly a 49% win chance, compared with Mito HollyHock at 3.63 (about 28%).
The best available draw price is 3.85, which implies close to a 26% chance of the match ending level.
No standout value picks against the match-result market were identified. The model's main suggestion, Over 2.75 goals at 1.98, actually shows a slightly negative value edge of -4.09%, so it should be viewed cautiously rather than as a confirmed edge.
Mito HollyHock vs Urawa Red Diamonds takes place Sat · 07:00 in the J1 League.
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