English ⚽ Brasileirão 🕒 13 Sept 2026
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
1.98
LostResult
2-2Final score
-1.00uProfit
53%Pre-match conf.
+1.02%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Matchbook
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Mirassol are priced at 1.87 to win, implying roughly 53.5% probability and clear favourite status over Vitoria.
02
Vitoria's best price of 4.53 implies only about 22.1%, reflecting the market's view of them as underdogs in this Brasileirão meeting.
03
The draw at 3.5 implies close to 28.6%, keeping it a realistic secondary outcome rather than a longshot.
04
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.07 carries a slight negative value edge of -4.01%, meaning it is a model lean rather than a confirmed market inefficiency.
Team form
MIR Mirassol WDWLD
19 Sept 26 vs Botafogo 2-0
13 Sept 26 vs Vitória 2-2
6 Sept 26 @ Coritiba 2-1
2 Sept 26 @ Flamengo 0-2
30 Aug 26 vs Palmeiras 1-1
VIT Vitoria DWLLW
13 Sept 26 @ Mirassol 2-2
7 Sept 26 vs Grêmio 1-0
29 Aug 26 @ Mineiro 1-2
23 Aug 26 vs Bahia 0-2
16 Aug 26 vs Botafogo 1-0
Head-to-head: Mirassol v Vitoria
Full H2H history → D 13 Sept 26
Mirassol 2-2 VitóriaBrasileirão
L 22 Mar 26
Vitória 1-0 MirassolBrasileirão
L 29 Nov 25
Vitória 2-0 MirassolBrasileirão
D 26 Jul 25
Mirassol 1-1 VitóriaBrasileirão
W/D/L shown from Mirassol's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Mirassol vs Vitoria: pre-match preview
Mirassol host Vitoria in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market has a clear favourite. Best odds of 1.87 on a Mirassol win imply a win probability of roughly 53.5%, while Vitoria at 4.53 is priced at only about 22.1% to take the points on the road. The draw sits at 3.5, implying around 28.6%, making it a live but secondary outcome. Together these prices point to a home side considered notably stronger by bookmakers, without making the away side a total outsider. Away from the result market, our model's featured angle is Over 2.5 goals at 2.07, implying close to 48% probability. That price carries a small negative edge against the model's own 46% confidence figure, so it is offered as a considered lean rather than a standout value play. No separate value picks against market consensus were flagged for this game.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 2.07 reflects a near-even coin-flip proposition with roughly 46-48% implied probability, and the negative edge means it is not a clear-cut value bet. It is a reasonable, moderate-risk option for bettors who fancy goals, best sized cautiously within a disciplined bankroll approach.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 2-2, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Mirassol vs Vitoria?+
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.98.
Who is favourite in the Mirassol vs Vitoria match?+
Mirassol are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.87 for the win, which implies roughly a 53.5% chance compared to Vitoria's implied 22.1% at 4.53.
What are the odds on the draw for this Brasileirão fixture?+
The best available draw price is 3.5, implying a probability of about 28.6%, keeping it a plausible outcome alongside the home favourite.
Is there value in betting on this game according to the model?+
The model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 2.07 as its recommended bet, but this carries a slightly negative value edge of -4.01%, so it should be viewed as a considered lean rather than a confirmed value opportunity; no other value picks cleared the threshold for this fixture.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 2-2 (-1.00u at flat stakes).