Brasileirão · Sun · 21:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Flamengo are the favourites at 2.0, an implied probability of about 50%, but not a dominant one.
Mirassol at 4.03 imply roughly 25%, while the draw at 3.48 sits near 29% — a fairly tight spread between home win and draw.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 reflects an implied confidence around 55%, suggesting the model expects a lower-scoring game.
The value edge on the Under is -4.14%, so it prices slightly below fair value and no picks cleared the value threshold.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.4% | 8.09 |
| 0-1 | 11.1% | 8.99 |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | 11.00 |
| 1-0 | 8.4% | 11.90 |
| 0-2 | 8.2% | 12.22 |
| 0-0 | 7.6% | 13.23 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.11 and 1.47. These six scorelines cover 57% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Mirassol's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 1.97 | 1xBet | 50.8% |
| Mirassol | 4.07 | 1xBet | 24.6% |
| Draw | 3.50 | Coolbet | 28.6% |
Flamengo travel to face Mirassol in this Brasileirão fixture as the market's clear pick, priced at 2.0 with Coolbet. That figure translates to an implied probability of roughly 50%, marking the visitors as favourites without making them a runaway certainty. Mirassol are offered at 4.03 (1xBet), around 25% implied, while the draw sits at 3.48, close to a 29% chance. Those numbers point to a contest the market sees as tilted toward Flamengo but far from settled. Our model, meanwhile, leans away from the outright result and toward the goals market, flagging Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 with 1xBet as its recommended angle. That price carries a market-implied confidence near 55%. Notably, the value edge on that selection reads at -4.14%, meaning it sits slightly below fair value rather than above it, so treat it as a lean rather than a standout opportunity.
Verdict: The model leans to Under 2.5 goals at 1.73, expecting a tighter game. Be aware the -4.14% edge means the price is marginally against you rather than in your favour, so this is a modest lean at best. Stake responsibly and keep it within a sensible bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 19:00 | Grêmio v Sao Paulo | 2.45 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| 8 Aug 21:30 | Remo v Atletico Mineiro | 3.08 | 3.40 | 2.48 |
| 8 Aug 23:30 | Coritiba v Chapecoense | 1.66 | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| 9 Aug 00:00 | Botafogo v Fluminense | 2.67 | 3.40 | 2.93 |
| 9 Aug 14:00 | Cruzeiro v Mirassol | 1.72 | 3.85 | 5.32 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Palmeiras v Internacional | 1.64 | 3.90 | 6.20 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Bahia v Vasco da Gama | 1.94 | 3.76 | 4.30 |
| 9 Aug 21:30 | Santos v Atletico Paranaense | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.61 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | +22 | 47 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | +19 | 39 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | +9 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | +5 | 34 |
| 5 | Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | +4 | 32 |
| 6 | Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | +6 | 31 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | -3 | 30 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | +2 | 29 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 29 |
| 10 | Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -3 | 27 |
| 12 | São Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | +2 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitória | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 26 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 16 | Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 22 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | -8 | 21 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 21 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -22 | 10 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.73, with a 55% confidence rating.
Flamengo are the market favourites at 2.0 with Coolbet, an implied probability of about 50%. Mirassol are the outsiders at 4.03.
The draw is priced at 3.48 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 29% chance of the teams sharing the points.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 actually shows a value edge of -4.14%, meaning it sits slightly below fair value, so treat it as a lean only.
Mirassol vs Flamengo takes place Sun · 21:30 in the Brasileirão.
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