Allsvenskan · Sun · 12:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Malmo FF at 1.55 imply about 65% win probability, making them strong favourites over Degerfors IF.
Degerfors are long outsiders at 6.4 (around 16% implied), a wide price gap between the two sides.
The draw is priced at 4.6, roughly 22% implied, leaving the hosts as the dominant outcome in the market's eyes.
The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.67 shows a negative value edge of -5.44%, so it is not priced as a value bet.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 5.10 | +9.1% | 21% | 60 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Degerfors IF | 8.00 | Unibet (SE) | 12.5% |
| Malmo FF | 1.55 | GTbets | 64.5% |
| Draw | 5.10 | Unibet (SE) | 19.6% |
Malmo FF host Degerfors IF in this Allsvenskan clash, and the market leaves little doubt about the favoured side. Malmo are priced at 1.55, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 65%, marking them as clear favourites on paper. Degerfors sit at the other end at 6.4, or about 16% implied, while the draw is available at 4.6, close to 22%. That spread reflects a contest the market expects the hosts to control rather than a tightly matched affair. Our model's attention, though, turns away from the result and towards goals: the recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.67, carrying a market-implied confidence near 57%. It is worth noting the calculated value edge here sits at -5.44%, meaning the price offers no positive edge against the model's estimate. This is a preview built on prices alone, so treat the Over as a lean rather than a standout opportunity.
Verdict: The model leans towards Over 2.5 goals at 1.67, backed by around 57% implied confidence. However, the -5.44% value edge means the price is slightly unfavourable versus the model's estimate. Treat this as a modest lean, not a value play, and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 13:00 | Örgryte IS v AIK | 3.34 | 3.80 | 2.23 |
| 8 Aug 15:30 | Mjällby AIF v IF Elfsborg | 2.44 | 3.45 | 3.20 |
| 9 Aug 12:00 | Hammarby IF v BK Hacken | 1.55 | 5.30 | 7.00 |
| 9 Aug 14:30 | Halmstads BK v GAIS | 5.40 | 4.10 | 1.71 |
| 9 Aug 14:30 | IFK Goteborg v Kalmar FF | 2.32 | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| 10 Aug 17:00 | IK Sirius v IF Brommapojkarna | 1.34 | 6.25 | 10.06 |
| 10 Aug 17:00 | Västerås SK v Djurgardens IF | 4.40 | 4.15 | 1.89 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.72, with a 56% confidence rating.
Malmo FF are clear favourites at 1.55, implying about a 65% chance. Degerfors IF are outsiders at 6.4, roughly 16% implied.
The draw is priced at 4.6 with Unibet (SE), which equates to an implied probability of around 22%.
No pick cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 actually shows a negative edge of -5.44%, so it is a lean rather than a value bet.
Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF takes place Sun · 12:00 in the Allsvenskan.
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