La Liga 2 · Sun · 14:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Mallorca's 2.07 price implies roughly 48% winning probability, the shortest of the three match-result outcomes.
Almería (3.4) and the draw (3.45) are priced almost identically, both implying close to 29% probability.
The Over 2.5 Goals selection at 1.81 carries an implied break-even probability of about 55%, while the model's own confidence sits at 51%, yielding a negative value edge of -8.02%.
No side of the match-result market meets the site's value-pick threshold against market consensus.
| Bookmaker | 1 · MAL | X | 2 · ALM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.00 | 3.51 | 3.88 |
| Pinnacle | 1.99 | 3.35 | 3.99 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.07 | 3.45 | 3.40 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.07 | 3.45 | 3.40 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.94 | 3.40 | 3.76 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.98 | 3.25 | 3.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Mallorca host Almería in a La Liga 2 clash where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Unibet's best price of 2.07 on Mallorca translates to an implied probability of roughly 48%, well above Almería's 3.4 (about 29%) and the draw at 3.45 (also close to 29%). That gap suggests bookmakers see Mallorca as the stronger side on the day, though the outcome is far from a formality given how tightly the draw and away price sit together. Away from the match-result market, the site's model points toward an alternative angle: Over 2.5 goals at 1.81, which implies a break-even probability near 55%. The model itself assigns a 51% confidence to that outcome, producing a modest negative value edge of -8.02% versus the market price, so it is presented as a considered lean rather than a strong statistical edge.
Verdict: The market favours Mallorca on paper, but the closely matched draw and away prices point to some uncertainty. The recommended Over 2.5 Goals bet at 1.81 reflects a moderate model confidence of 51%, slightly below the price's implied probability, meaning it should be treated as a measured, not clearly favourable, wager. Bankroll discipline remains advisable.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Leganés v Granada CF | 2.20 | 3.25 | 4.20 |
| 25 Sept 18:30 | Girona FC v Albacete | 1.58 | 4.54 | 5.75 |
| 26 Sept 12:00 | AD Ceuta FC v Real Sociedad B | 2.30 | 3.67 | 3.05 |
| 26 Sept 14:15 | Granada CF v Andorra CF | 2.32 | 3.35 | 3.00 |
| 26 Sept 16:30 | Celta Fortuna v Sabadell FC | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.28 |
| 26 Sept 16:30 | Tenerife v Cádiz CF | 1.82 | 3.63 | 5.50 |
| 27 Sept 12:00 | Real Valladolid CF v Córdoba | 2.33 | 3.57 | 3.18 |
| 27 Sept 16:30 | Burgos CF v CD Eldense | 1.89 | 3.58 | 4.60 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 51% confidence rating.
Mallorca are the market favourites, priced at 2.07 with Unibet, which implies roughly a 48% chance of victory, compared with about 29% each for Almería and the draw.
The draw is priced at 3.45 with Unibet, implying a probability of close to 29%, almost identical to Almería's implied chance.
No match-result selection clears the site's value threshold. The model does flag Over 2.5 Goals at 1.81, but its own 51% confidence is slightly below the price's implied probability, giving a negative edge of -8.02%, so it should be viewed as a moderate lean rather than a clear value play.
Mallorca vs Almería takes place Sun · 14:15 in the La Liga 2.
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