English ⚽ Ligue 1 🕒 12 Sept 2026
Our tip
Lorient to win
Odds
2.70
LostResult
2-2Final score
-1.00uProfit
41%Pre-match conf.
+8.87%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Unibet (SE)
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Lorient's implied win probability from the best price (2.7) is about 37 percent, the lowest implied probability of the three outcomes, marking them market favourites.
02
Toulouse's price of 2.97 implies roughly 34 percent, keeping them within reach of Lorient rather than clear underdogs.
03
The draw is priced at 3.35, implying close to 30 percent, showing bookmakers see a stalemate as a live possibility.
04
The model's 41 percent confidence in a Lorient win exceeds the market-implied 37 percent, producing a value edge of 9.79 percent on that selection.
Team form
LOR Lorient LDWLD
19 Sept 26 @ Le Mans 1-2
12 Sept 26 vs Toulouse 2-2
5 Sept 26 @ RC Lens 1-0
29 Aug 26 vs Troyes 1-2
22 Aug 26 @ Nice 0-0
TOU Toulouse WDLDL
19 Sept 26 vs Le Havre 3-2
12 Sept 26 @ Lorient 2-2
3 Sept 26 vs Lille 0-1
29 Aug 26 @ Brest 2-2
22 Aug 26 vs Olympique Lyon 0-2
Head-to-head: Lorient v Toulouse
Full H2H history → D 12 Sept 26
Lorient 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
L 21 Mar 26
Toulouse 1-0 LorientLigue 1
D 9 Nov 25
Lorient 1-1 ToulouseLigue 1
W/D/L shown from Lorient's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Lorient vs Toulouse: pre-match preview
Lorient host Toulouse in a Ligue 1 fixture where the betting market leans, without being overwhelming, toward the home side. The best available price on Lorient to win is 2.7 with Unibet (SE), which implies a probability of roughly 37 percent. Toulouse are priced at 2.97 with 1xBet, translating to an implied chance of about 34 percent, while the draw sits at 3.35 with Unibet (SE), implying close to 30 percent. Those three numbers sit fairly close together, pointing to a competitive, three-way contest rather than a one-sided affair. Our model goes further than the raw market price, rating Lorient's true winning chance at around 41 percent, above what the odds imply, and this gap is the basis for the recommended bet on a Lorient win at 2.7.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Lorient to win at 2.7, backed by a 9.79 percent value edge over the market-implied probability. It is a moderate-confidence pick at 41 percent rather than a lock, so this remains a risk-carrying single, not a certainty, and stake sizing should reflect that.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 2-2, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
L 12 Sept 26
Under 3.5 goalsfinal score 2-2
1.79 -1.00u Upcoming Ligue 1 fixtures
All Ligue 1 tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | Marseille v Paris Saint Germain | 7.40 | 5.50 | 1.46 |
| 9 Oct 18:45 | RC Lens v Lyon | 2.26 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 15:15 | Lille v Le Havre | 1.48 | 4.88 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | AS Monaco v Toulouse | 1.82 | 4.11 | 4.70 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Brest v Angers | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Lorient v Paris FC | 3.04 | 3.60 | 2.48 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans FC | 1.12 | 13.40 | 24.00 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Nice v Strasbourg | 2.29 | 3.72 | 3.23 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Ligue 1 standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Olympique Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Angers SCO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | PSG | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Brest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | RC Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Lorient vs Toulouse?+
Our tip was Lorient to win at odds of 2.70.
Who are the favourites in the Lorient vs Toulouse match?+
Lorient are the marginal favourites according to the odds, with a best price of 2.7 implying about a 37 percent win probability, compared to Toulouse's 2.97 (around 34 percent).
What is the draw priced at in this Ligue 1 fixture?+
The draw is available at 3.35 with Unibet (SE), which implies a probability of roughly 30 percent.
Is there value in betting on Lorient to win?+
Yes, according to the model, which rates Lorient's true winning chance at 41 percent against a market-implied 37 percent, producing a value edge of 9.79 percent on the 2.7 price, though this is not a guaranteed outcome.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 2-2 (-1.00u at flat stakes).