Ligue 1 · Sat · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Paris FC are the nominal favourites at 2.51, implying roughly a 40 percent chance of victory according to the market
Lorient's 2.96 price implies about 34 percent, and the model sees this as undervalued by a 4.26 percent edge
The draw at 3.6 implies close to 28 percent, keeping all three outcomes within a relatively narrow band
No other selections on this fixture clear the value threshold, leaving Lorient as the sole flagged angle
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.5% | 8.01 |
| 1-0 | 9.8% | 10.26 |
| 0-1 | 9.3% | 10.74 |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | 11.95 |
| 1-2 | 8.0% | 12.52 |
| 0-0 | 7.3% | 13.76 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.34 and 1.28. These six scorelines cover 55% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Lorient's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LOR | X | 2 · PF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.04 | 3.51 | 2.48 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.95 | 3.60 | 2.43 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.95 | 3.60 | 2.43 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.97 | 3.42 | 2.42 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.90 | 3.45 | 2.41 |
| Pinnacle | 2.91 | 3.37 | 2.44 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Ligue 1 action brings together Lorient and Paris FC in a fixture where the betting market leans only slightly toward one side. Best available odds have Paris FC as the marginal favourite at 2.51 with 1xBet, implying a probability of roughly 40 percent, while Lorient sit at 2.96, translating to about 34 percent. The draw is priced at 3.6, which works out to close to 28 percent, keeping this a tightly bunched three-way market rather than a clear mismatch. Our model flags Lorient's price as the standout angle here, suggesting the 2.96 available overstates the away side's true chances and offers a modest edge over the raw market consensus. There are no other value picks clearing the threshold on this fixture, so the Lorient line is the single point of interest for bettors weighing this Ligue 1 clash.
Verdict: Lorient to win at 2.96 is the recommended angle, backed by a modest 4.26 percent edge over market consensus rather than a dominant statistical case. With Paris FC still favoured and the draw realistically priced, this remains a moderate-risk selection suited to measured staking rather than confident backing.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | Marseille v Paris Saint Germain | 7.40 | 5.50 | 1.46 |
| 9 Oct 18:45 | RC Lens v Lyon | 2.26 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 15:15 | Lille v Le Havre | 1.48 | 4.88 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | AS Monaco v Toulouse | 1.82 | 4.11 | 4.70 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Brest v Angers | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans FC | 1.12 | 13.40 | 24.00 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Nice v Strasbourg | 2.29 | 3.72 | 3.23 |
| 11 Oct 15:15 | Rennes v Auxerre | 1.46 | 5.24 | 7.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Olympique Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Angers SCO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | PSG | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Brest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | RC Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.89, with a 52% confidence rating.
Paris FC are the marginal market favourites at 2.51, implying about a 40 percent win probability, compared to Lorient's 2.96 (roughly 34 percent).
The draw is priced at 3.6 with 1xBet, which implies a probability of close to 28 percent.
The model identifies Lorient at 2.96 as carrying a 4.26 percent edge over market consensus, though no other selections in this fixture clear the value threshold.
Lorient vs Paris FC takes place Sat · 18:45 in the Ligue 1.
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