Eliteserien · Sun · 12:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Lillestrom are favourites at 2.45 (about 41% implied), just ahead of Rosenborg at 2.89 (about 35%).
The draw at 3.64 implies roughly 27%, underlining a reasonably competitive match-result market.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.66 reflects an implied confidence near 58% in a higher-scoring game.
The value edge on that Over 2.5 pick is -3.24%, indicating the price is marginally shorter than our model's fair estimate.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom | 2.48 | LeoVegas (SE) | 40.3% |
| Rosenborg | 2.89 | GTbets | 34.6% |
| Draw | 3.64 | Pinnacle | 27.5% |
Lillestrom host Rosenborg in the Eliteserien with a set of prices that lean narrowly toward the home side. Lillestrom are the market favourites at 2.45, which translates to roughly a 41% implied chance, while Rosenborg sit at 2.89, around 35%. The draw is priced at 3.64, or close to 27% in implied terms. That spread points to a fairly balanced contest rather than a clear mismatch, with the home edge more a nudge than a decisive advantage. Rather than backing a side, our model looks to the goals market: Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.66 with LeoVegas (SE), carrying a market-implied confidence of about 58%. Notably, the value edge on that selection comes out at -3.24%, meaning the price is slightly below what our model considers fair. It remains the recommended angle here, but the numbers suggest treating it with measured expectations.
Verdict: The recommended play is Over 2.5 goals at 1.66, backed by roughly 58% model confidence in an open game. Be aware the value edge is slightly negative at -3.24%, so this is a lean rather than a standout price. Stake responsibly and size accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 17:00 | Sandefjord v KFUM | 2.11 | 3.75 | 3.63 |
| 8 Aug 12:00 | Vålerenga v Bodø/Glimt | 6.60 | 5.17 | 1.48 |
| 8 Aug 14:00 | Viking FK v Sarpsborg FK | 1.38 | 5.63 | 7.60 |
| 8 Aug 16:00 | IK Start v Fredrikstad FK | 2.33 | 3.55 | 3.21 |
| 9 Aug 15:00 | HamKam v Aalesund | 2.18 | 3.85 | 3.37 |
| 9 Aug 17:15 | Kristiansund BK v Molde | 4.90 | 3.90 | 1.78 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.32, with a 41% confidence rating.
Lillestrom are the narrow favourites at 2.45, about a 41% implied chance, with Rosenborg close behind at 2.89, around 35%.
The draw is priced at 3.64 with Pinnacle, which implies roughly a 27% chance.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.66 actually shows a value edge of -3.24%, meaning the price is slightly shorter than our model's fair estimate.
Lillestrom vs Rosenborg takes place Sun · 12:30 in the Eliteserien.
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