La Liga · Mon · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Levante are marginal favourites at 2.68, implying roughly 37.3 percent win probability, just ahead of Sevilla's 34.5 percent at 2.90.
The draw at 3.39 implies about 29.5 percent, showing the market gives a real but secondary chance to a stalemate.
The combined implied probabilities sit around 101 percent, indicating a tight, low-margin market with no standout favourite.
No match-result selections clear the site's value threshold, and the recommended Over 2.25 goals bet itself carries a negative value edge of -4.21 percent despite 52 percent model confidence.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.6% | 8.61 |
| 1-0 | 9.4% | 10.63 |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | 10.78 |
| 2-0 | 7.5% | 13.30 |
| 0-1 | 7.3% | 13.76 |
| 1-2 | 7.2% | 13.95 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.60 and 1.24. These six scorelines cover 52% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Levante's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LEV | X | 2 · SEV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.68 | 3.39 | 2.88 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.61 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.65 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| Pinnacle | 2.61 | 3.25 | 2.79 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Levante host Sevilla in a La Liga fixture where the market sees very little separating the two sides. Levante's best price of 2.68 with 1xBet makes them narrow favourites, implying a win probability of just over 37 percent, while Sevilla at 2.90 with Unibet sit close behind at roughly 34.5 percent. The draw, priced at 3.39 with 1xBet, carries an implied chance of about 29.5 percent, underlining how tightly matched the odds view this contest. With no team commanding a clear edge, the model's attention shifts away from the result market entirely, landing instead on the goals total. The recommended play is Over 2.25 goals at 1.83 with Pinnacle, a line the model assigns 52 percent confidence, though its calculated value edge is actually negative, meaning the price does not represent a statistical overlay by the model's own measure.
Verdict: The recommended Over 2.25 goals pick at 1.83 reflects moderate model confidence of 52 percent, but its negative value edge means it is not flagged as a clear market inefficiency. Bettors considering it should treat it as a close-call goals total rather than a strong statistical edge, and stake accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Valencia v Real Sociedad | 3.18 | 3.45 | 2.58 |
| 9 Oct 19:00 | Málaga v Espanyol | 2.50 | 3.38 | 3.13 |
| 10 Oct 12:00 | Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao | 3.20 | 3.51 | 2.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:15 | Alavés v Atlético Madrid | 3.90 | 3.75 | 2.08 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Barcelona v Getafe | 1.07 | 24.00 | 55.00 |
| 10 Oct 19:00 | Real Madrid v Villarreal | 1.27 | 7.50 | 11.30 |
| 11 Oct 12:00 | Elche CF v Celta Vigo | 3.03 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| 11 Oct 14:15 | Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruña | 1.97 | 3.75 | 4.21 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 | Atleti | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 | Alavés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 10 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Celta | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Real Sociedad | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Málaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.25 goals at odds of 1.83, with a 52% confidence rating.
Levante are the narrow market favourites at 2.68, implying about 37.3 percent win probability, slightly ahead of Sevilla's 2.90 price and 34.5 percent implied chance.
The draw is priced at 3.39 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 29.5 percent chance of the match ending level.
No match-result selections clear the site's value threshold. The featured recommendation is an Over 2.25 goals bet at 1.83 with 52 percent model confidence, though it actually carries a slightly negative value edge of -4.21 percent.
Levante vs Sevilla takes place Mon · 19:00 in the La Liga.
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