English ⚽ La Liga 🕒 16 Sept 2026
AI Awaiting settlement — graded automatically once the final score lands
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Athletic Bilbao's 2.33 price implies roughly 43 percent win probability, the strongest single outcome in the market
02
Levante's 3.27 price implies about 31 percent, yet the model rates their true chance closer to 38 percent, a 24.91 percent edge
03
The draw at 3.58 carries a fair probability estimate of 29 percent against its implied price, giving a smaller 3.56 percent edge
04
Combined implied probabilities across all three outcomes sit close together, suggesting no outcome is overwhelmingly backed by the market
Team form
LEV Levante LLDWD
20 Sept 26 @ Villarreal 1-3
13 Sept 26 vs Barça 2-4
6 Sept 26 @ Málaga 0-0
29 Aug 26 vs Real Betis 5-2
24 Aug 26 @ Osasuna 0-0
AB Athletic Bilbao DDWWL
19 Sept 26 vs Alavés 0-0
12 Sept 26 vs Elche 1-1
5 Sept 26 vs Atleti 3-0
30 Aug 26 @ Celta 2-0
27 Aug 26 @ Barça 0-2
Head-to-head: Levante v Athletic Bilbao
Full H2H history → L 8 Feb 26
Athletic 4-2 LevanteLa Liga
L 29 Nov 25
Levante 0-2 AthleticLa Liga
W/D/L shown from Levante's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Levante vs Athletic Bilbao: pre-match preview
Athletic Bilbao head to Levante as clear favourites for this La Liga meeting, with their best available price of 2.33 implying a win probability of roughly 43 percent. Levante, priced at 3.27, sit at an implied 31 percent, while the draw at 3.58 rounds out the market at around 28 percent. Those numbers point to a fixture the bookmakers expect Athletic to control, but not by an overwhelming margin. Our model takes a contrarian view here, flagging Levante's 3.27 price as the standout value angle, with an estimated 38 percent chance of victory against a market implied figure well below that, producing a sizeable edge. The draw also shows a modest positive edge versus its fair probability. Bettors weighing this Levante-Athletic Bilbao clash should treat the odds as a genuine three-way contest rather than a one-sided affair.
Verdict: The model highlights Levante at 3.27 as the value play, built on a meaningful gap between market pricing and its estimated 38 percent win probability. Athletic remain favourites on the raw odds, so this is a higher-risk, value-driven selection rather than a safe favourite backing, and stakes should be sized accordingly.
Upcoming La Liga fixtures
All La Liga tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Valencia v Real Sociedad | 3.18 | 3.45 | 2.58 |
| 9 Oct 19:00 | Málaga v Espanyol | 2.50 | 3.38 | 3.13 |
| 10 Oct 12:00 | Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao | 3.20 | 3.51 | 2.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:15 | Alavés v Atlético Madrid | 3.90 | 3.75 | 2.08 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Barcelona v Getafe | 1.07 | 24.00 | 55.00 |
| 10 Oct 19:00 | Real Madrid v Villarreal | 1.27 | 7.50 | 11.30 |
| 11 Oct 12:00 | Elche CF v Celta Vigo | 3.03 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| 11 Oct 14:15 | Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruña | 1.97 | 3.75 | 4.21 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Primera Division standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 | Atleti | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 | Alavés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 10 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Celta | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Real Sociedad | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Málaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Levante vs Athletic Bilbao?+
Our tip was Levante to win at odds of 3.27.
Who is favourite in the Levante vs Athletic Bilbao match?+
Athletic Bilbao are favourites, priced at 2.33, which implies close to a 43 percent chance of winning according to the market.
What is the draw priced at for this fixture?+
The draw is available at 3.58, implying roughly a 28 percent probability, and the model's fair estimate of 29 percent gives it a small positive edge of 3.56 percent.
Is there value in backing Levante to win?+
According to the model, yes. Levante's 3.27 price implies about 31 percent, but the model estimates their true win chance at 38 percent, producing a 24.91 percent edge, though this remains a value bet against the market favourite rather than a safe pick.
Did the tip win?+
The match has not been settled yet — the result is graded automatically once the final score is available.