La Liga 2 · Today · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Leganés are priced at 2.07, implying close to 48% win probability, making them the clear market favourite over Granada CF at 4.14 (about 24%).
The draw at 3.27 implies roughly 31%, a live outcome given the gap between the two teams' prices.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 2.38 carries a 40% model confidence but a negative value edge of -3.61%, meaning it does not clear the model's value bar.
No match-result selections cleared the value threshold, so no side-market pick is being highlighted for this fixture.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.4% | 7.46 |
| 1-0 | 13.1% | 7.63 |
| 0-1 | 11.7% | 8.53 |
| 0-0 | 11.5% | 8.72 |
| 2-1 | 7.7% | 13.05 |
| 2-0 | 7.5% | 13.35 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.14 and 1.02. These six scorelines cover 65% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granada CF to win | 4.20 | +6.7% | 25% | 60 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LEG | X | 2 · GC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| Matchbook | 2.18 | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.11 | 3.21 | 4.01 |
| Coolbet | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
| 1xBet | 2.07 | 3.14 | 4.00 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.08 | 3.10 | 3.90 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Leganés host Granada CF in a La Liga 2 clash where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best odds of 2.07 for Leganés imply a win probability of roughly 48%, well ahead of Granada's 4.14 price, which points to only about 24% for an away win. The draw sits at 3.27, translating to near 31%, keeping this from being a one-sided market read. Rather than picking a side in the match-result market, our model's recommended angle looks to the goals market: Over 2.5 goals at 2.38, priced at roughly 42% implied probability. The model's own confidence sits at 40%, and it flags a slightly negative value edge of -3.61%, meaning the price does not quite clear its threshold for a genuine edge, so this is offered as an informed lean rather than a stronger value call.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.38 reflects a plausible but not statistically favoured angle, with the model itself flagging a small negative edge. Treat it as a moderate-risk lean rather than a strong value play, and size any stake conservatively given the market's own pricing does not fully support the edge claimed.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sept 18:30 | Girona FC v Albacete | 1.58 | 4.54 | 5.75 |
| 26 Sept 12:00 | AD Ceuta FC v Real Sociedad B | 2.30 | 3.67 | 3.05 |
| 26 Sept 14:15 | Granada CF v Andorra CF | 2.32 | 3.35 | 3.00 |
| 26 Sept 16:30 | Celta Fortuna v Sabadell FC | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.28 |
| 26 Sept 16:30 | Tenerife v Cádiz CF | 1.82 | 3.63 | 5.50 |
| 27 Sept 12:00 | Real Valladolid CF v Córdoba | 2.33 | 3.57 | 3.18 |
| 27 Sept 14:15 | Mallorca v Almería | 2.07 | 3.51 | 3.99 |
| 27 Sept 16:30 | Burgos CF v CD Eldense | 1.89 | 3.58 | 4.60 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.53, with a 39% confidence rating.
Leganés are the market favourites, priced at 2.07 for a win, which implies roughly a 48% chance compared to about 24% for Granada CF at 4.14.
The draw is available at 3.27, implying an approximate 31% probability, a meaningful share of the market given the gap between the two teams' odds.
The model's recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 2.38, but it carries a negative value edge of -3.61%, so it is not flagged as a clear value opportunity; no match-result picks cleared the value threshold either.
Leganés vs Granada CF takes place Today · 19:00 in the La Liga 2.
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