English ⚽ Ekstraklasa 🕒 Today · 18:15
Our tip
Under 5.5 goals
Odds
1.85
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceMedium · 66%
AI Value edge 22.56% · best price at Tipico
Bet at Tipico Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Lech Poznań are priced at 1.41, implying roughly a 71 percent chance of victory according to the market.
02
Radomiak Radom's 7.25 price implies just under 14 percent, and the draw at 5.25 implies around 19 percent, both reflecting long-shot outcomes relative to the favourite.
03
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.10 carries a 46 percent model-implied confidence but a negative value edge of -3.66 percent, meaning the model does not currently rate it as offering positive expected value.
04
No value picks against market consensus met the site's threshold for this fixture, indicating the visible markets are broadly aligned with model expectations.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 57%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.29 |
| 2-0 | 9.7% | 10.34 |
| 1-1 | 8.3% | 11.98 |
| 1-0 | 8.3% | 12.03 |
| 3-1 | 7.5% | 13.26 |
| 3-0 | 7.5% | 13.33 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.33 and 1.00. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
LP Lech Poznań LWWWW
12 Sept 26 @ Górnik Zabrze 1-2
6 Sept 26 vs Raków Częstochowa 1-0
3 Sept 26 vs Jagiellonia Białystok 2-1
30 Aug 26 @ Widzew Łódź 3-2
9 Aug 26 vs Piast Gliwice 3-0
RR Radomiak Radom LDDLL
14 Sept 26 vs Piast Gliwice 0-2
5 Sept 26 @ Widzew Łódź 0-0
23 Aug 26 vs Zagłębie Lubin 0-0
14 Aug 26 @ Legia Warszawa 0-5
8 Aug 26 vs Górnik Zabrze 1-3
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 · LP | X | 2 · RR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.14 | 10.00 | 28.00 |
| Betfair | 1.13 | 10.00 | 27.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.13 | 8.12 | 21.65 |
| Coolbet | 1.11 | 8.50 | 18.00 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.12 | 7.75 | 19.00 |
| 888sport | 1.12 | 7.50 | 17.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Lech Poznań vs Radomiak Radom: match preview
Lech Poznań host Radomiak Radom in an Ekstraklasa fixture where the betting market leans heavily toward the home side. Best available odds price Lech at 1.41, which implies a win probability of roughly 71 percent, while Radomiak at 7.25 corresponds to just under 14 percent, and the draw at 5.25 sits around 19 percent. Adding these figures together produces just over 100 percent, reflecting the standard bookmaker margin built into the pricing. With the result market so one-sided, our model's flagged selection moves away from the outright winner and instead looks at Over 3.5 goals, priced at 2.10 and carrying a model-implied confidence of 46 percent. That confidence figure, combined with a value edge of minus 3.66 percent, suggests the price is not clearly favourable by the model's own calculation, so this is a case worth weighing carefully rather than backing automatically.
Verdict: The recommended angle is Over 3.5 goals at 2.10, but the -3.66 percent edge means this is not flagged as strong value by the model. With Lech heavily favoured in the result market, this goals bet is a speculative option rather than a high-confidence pick, so stake sizing should reflect that added uncertainty.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Lech Poznań vs Radomiak Radom?+
Our tip is Under 5.5 goals at odds of 1.85, with a 66% confidence rating.
Who is favourite in the Lech Poznań vs Radomiak Radom match?+
Lech Poznań are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.41, which implies a win probability of about 71 percent based on the odds given.
What is the draw priced at for this Ekstraklasa fixture?+
The draw is available at 5.25, implying an approximate 19 percent chance according to the market data provided.
Is there value in backing Over 3.5 goals for this match?+
The Over 3.5 goals price of 2.10 carries a model-implied confidence of 46 percent but a value edge of -3.66 percent, meaning the model does not currently see it as a clear value bet, so it should be considered with caution.
When does the match kick off?+
Lech Poznań vs Radomiak Radom takes place Today · 18:15 in the Ekstraklasa.