English ⚽ Serie A 🕒 13 Sept 2026
Our tip
Lecce to win
Odds
2.56
WonResult
3-2Final score
+1.56uProfit
41%Pre-match conf.
-11.72%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Betfair
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Lecce are priced at 2.38 to win, implying around 42% probability, the shortest of the three match-result outcomes.
02
Monza's 3.45 price implies roughly 29% probability, the least favoured outcome on the 1X2 market.
03
The draw at 3.35 implies almost 30%, keeping the match-result market fairly tightly grouped.
04
The Over 2.5 goals pick at 2.35 carries a slight negative value edge of -1.36%, meaning the price is marginally short of the model's estimated true probability.
Team form
LEC Lecce WLLWW
13 Sept 26 vs Monza 3-2
7 Sept 26 @ Cagliari 0-1
31 Aug 26 vs Roma 0-4
23 Aug 26 @ Venezia FC 2-0
24 May 26 vs Genoa 1-0
MON Monza WLDLL
18 Sept 26 vs Sassuolo 2-1
13 Sept 26 @ Lecce 2-3
6 Sept 26 @ Parma 1-1
29 Aug 26 vs Udinese 2-3
22 Aug 26 @ Inter 1-4
Head-to-head: Lecce v Monza
W 13 Sept 26
Lecce 3-2 MonzaSerie A
W/D/L shown from Lecce's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Lecce vs Monza: pre-match preview
Lecce host Monza in Serie A with the betting market installing the home side as clear favourites. Best odds of 2.38 for a Lecce win imply a probability of roughly 42%, noticeably higher than Monza's 3.45 price, which points to about 29% for an away win. The draw sits close behind at 3.35, implying just under 30%, showing bookmakers see this as a competitive if home-leaning contest. Away from the outright result, our model's attention turns to the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 2.35 as the recommended angle. That price implies a 42.5% chance of the match producing three or more goals, slightly above the model's own 42% confidence reading, which explains the marginally negative value edge. It is not a standout price discrepancy, but it fits a match where the 1X2 market itself is fairly tightly bunched between the three outcomes.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 2.35 is the highlighted selection, backed by a 42% model confidence that closely matches the market's implied probability. With a small negative value edge, this is not a pronounced market inefficiency, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk pick rather than a strong value play, and staked with care.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 3-2, for a flat-stake return of +1.56 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Serie A fixtures
All Serie A tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | AC Milan v Lecce | 1.26 | 6.60 | 16.00 |
| 10 Oct 13:00 | Genoa v Fiorentina | 3.25 | 3.48 | 2.45 |
| 10 Oct 16:00 | Inter Milan v Parma | 1.14 | 10.60 | 22.00 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Napoli v Frosinone | 1.49 | 4.94 | 7.50 |
| 11 Oct 10:30 | Como v AS Roma | 2.64 | 3.67 | 2.88 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lecce v Bologna | 4.21 | 3.50 | 2.08 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lazio v Monza | 1.77 | 3.81 | 5.40 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Sassuolo v AC Milan | 4.58 | 3.93 | 1.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Serie A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +11 | 13 |
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 6 | Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Milan | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 9 | Napoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Udinese | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Torino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Lecce vs Monza?+
Our tip was Lecce to win at odds of 2.56.
Who is favourite in the Lecce vs Monza match?+
Lecce are favourites according to the market, priced at 2.38 to win compared to 3.45 for Monza, implying roughly 42% versus 29% probability.
What is the draw priced at for Lecce vs Monza?+
The draw is available at 3.35, which implies a probability of just under 30%, keeping all three outcomes relatively close together.
Is there value in this fixture according to the data?+
No standout value picks are flagged against the market consensus. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.35 has only a slight negative value edge of -1.36%, so it is a moderate rather than a clearly value-driven selection.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 3-2 (+1.56u at flat stakes).