English ⚽ Serie A 🕒 Sun · 13:00
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
1.88
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue · 57%
AI Value edge 6.73% · best price at 1xBet
Bet at 1xBet Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Bologna are priced at 2.13, implying roughly 47 percent win probability, making them clear market favourites over Lecce at 4.01 (about 25 percent).
02
The draw at 3.5 implies close to 28.6 percent, meaning the market rates a draw as more likely than a Lecce win.
03
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.88 carries a 57 percent model confidence and a 6.55 percent value edge, the largest edge identified across the data.
04
Lecce's outright price shows a smaller value edge of 3.01 percent, with a fair probability of 26 percent versus an implied 24.94 percent from the odds.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 43%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 13.9% | 7.18 |
| 1-1 | 13.3% | 7.54 |
| 0-0 | 11.5% | 8.68 |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | 9.12 |
| 0-2 | 8.4% | 11.88 |
| 1-2 | 8.0% | 12.48 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.95 and 1.21. These six scorelines cover 66% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Additional predictions
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce to win | 4.21 | +4.1% | 25% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Team form
LEC Lecce WLLWW
13 Sept 26 vs Monza 3-2
7 Sept 26 @ Cagliari 0-1
31 Aug 26 vs Roma 0-4
23 Aug 26 @ Venezia FC 2-0
24 May 26 vs Genoa 1-0
BOL Bologna DLDLL
19 Sept 26 vs Torino 1-1
13 Sept 26 @ Napoli 0-1
6 Sept 26 vs Sassuolo 2-2
31 Aug 26 @ Atalanta 0-1
24 Aug 26 vs Lazio 0-1
Head-to-head: Lecce v Bologna
Full H2H history → L 12 Apr 26
Bologna 2-0 LecceSerie A
D 28 Sept 25
Lecce 2-2 BolognaSerie A
W/D/L shown from Lecce's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 · LEC | X | 2 · BOL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.21 | 3.40 | 2.07 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.75 | 3.50 | 2.07 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.75 | 3.50 | 2.07 |
| Marathon Bet | 4.10 | 3.30 | 2.01 |
| Pinnacle | 4.17 | 3.21 | 2.00 |
| Nordic Bet | 3.95 | 3.15 | 2.08 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Lecce vs Bologna: match preview
Serie A action pairs Lecce and Bologna in a fixture where the betting market leans firmly toward the visitors. Bologna's best price of 2.13 with 1xBet implies a win probability of roughly 47 percent, making them the clear favourite, while Lecce's 4.01 price translates to just under 25 percent. The draw, priced at 3.5 with Unibet (SE), sits at around 28.6 percent implied probability, keeping the outcome market fairly tight between a Bologna win and a stalemate. Away from the result market, our model flags Under 2.5 goals at 1.88 with 1xBet as the standout angle, carrying a model confidence of 57 percent and a value edge of 6.55 percent, suggesting the goals market may be more mispriced than the match-result market itself. There is also a modest value signal on Lecce's outright price, with a fair probability estimate of 26 percent against the 4.01 odds, a gap of about 3 percent.
Verdict: The data points most strongly to Under 2.5 goals at 1.88, backed by a 57 percent model confidence and the largest value edge in the dataset. It is not a certainty, but the numbers suggest reasonable value relative to the price. Stake sizing should reflect this being a probability-based edge, not a guaranteed outcome.
Upcoming Serie A fixtures
All Serie A tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | AC Milan v Lecce | 1.26 | 6.60 | 16.00 |
| 10 Oct 13:00 | Genoa v Fiorentina | 3.25 | 3.48 | 2.45 |
| 10 Oct 16:00 | Inter Milan v Parma | 1.14 | 10.60 | 22.00 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Napoli v Frosinone | 1.49 | 4.94 | 7.50 |
| 11 Oct 10:30 | Como v AS Roma | 2.64 | 3.67 | 2.88 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lazio v Monza | 1.77 | 3.81 | 5.40 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Sassuolo v AC Milan | 4.58 | 3.93 | 1.85 |
| 11 Oct 18:45 | Cagliari v Juventus | 6.50 | 4.25 | 1.62 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Serie A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +11 | 13 |
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 6 | Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Milan | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 9 | Napoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Udinese | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Torino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Lecce vs Bologna?+
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.88, with a 57% confidence rating.
Who is favourite in the Lecce vs Bologna match?+
Bologna are the market favourites, priced at 2.13 with 1xBet, which implies a win probability of about 47 percent, compared to Lecce's 4.01 price implying roughly 25 percent.
What are the odds on the draw in Lecce vs Bologna?+
The best available draw price is 3.5 with Unibet (SE), which implies a probability of around 28.6 percent, slightly higher than Lecce's implied win chance.
Is there value in betting on this Serie A fixture?+
According to the model, the strongest value lies in Under 2.5 goals at 1.88, with a 6.55 percent edge and 57 percent confidence. A smaller edge of 3.01 percent is also noted on Lecce's outright price at 4.01.
When does the match kick off?+
Lecce vs Bologna takes place Sun · 13:00 in the Serie A.