Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
Le Havre's best home-win price of 2.28 implies roughly 43.9 percent probability, making them the market favourite over Angers.
The draw at 3.4 implies about 29.4 percent, slightly higher than Angers' implied win probability of 27.9 percent from their 3.58 price.
The Under 2.5 goals selection at 1.74 carries a model-implied confidence of 61 percent and a value edge of 6.93 percent, the standout figure in this preview.
No 1x2 value picks cleared the threshold versus market consensus, indicating the match-result market is viewed as fairly priced overall.
Team form
Head-to-head: Le Havre v Angers
Full H2H history →W/D/L shown from Le Havre's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Le Havre vs Angers: pre-match preview
Le Havre host Angers in a Ligue 1 fixture where the betting market gives HAC a clear, though not overwhelming, edge. Best-priced odds of 2.28 on a home win imply a probability near 43.9 percent, while Angers at 3.58 sit at roughly 27.9 percent. The draw, priced at 3.4, actually edges out the away win in implied terms at about 29.4 percent, suggesting bookmakers see this as a tighter contest than the raw favourite tag might indicate. Rather than leaning on the result market, our model's recommended angle looks at the goals total: Under 2.5 goals is priced at 1.74, corresponding to an implied 61 percent confidence level, with a calculated value edge of 6.93 percent versus the market consensus. No standout value picks emerged in the 1x2 market itself, which points to this being a game where the total-goals line offers the more interesting price relative to perceived probability.
Verdict: The recommended play is Under 2.5 goals at 1.74, backed by a 61 percent implied confidence and a 6.93 percent edge versus market pricing, the clearest statistical angle here. It is a moderate-risk selection rather than a certainty, and stake sizing should reflect that outcomes in a low-scoring market remain far from guaranteed.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 0-0, for a flat-stake return of +0.74 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
Upcoming Ligue 1 fixtures
All Ligue 1 tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | Marseille v Paris Saint Germain | 7.40 | 5.50 | 1.46 |
| 9 Oct 18:45 | RC Lens v Lyon | 2.26 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 15:15 | Lille v Le Havre | 1.48 | 4.88 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | AS Monaco v Toulouse | 1.82 | 4.11 | 4.70 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Brest v Angers | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Lorient v Paris FC | 3.04 | 3.60 | 2.48 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans FC | 1.12 | 13.40 | 24.00 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Nice v Strasbourg | 2.29 | 3.72 | 3.23 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Ligue 1 standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Olympique Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Angers SCO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | PSG | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Brest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | RC Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.74.
Le Havre are the market favourite, with best odds of 2.28 implying an approximate 43.9 percent win probability, compared to Angers' 27.9 percent implied from 3.58 odds.
The draw is available at 3.4, which implies a probability of roughly 29.4 percent, slightly above Angers' implied chance of winning outright.
The clearest data-backed value identified is in the goals market, with Under 2.5 goals at 1.74 showing a 6.93 percent edge and 61 percent implied confidence; no 1x2 selections met the value threshold.
The tip won — final score 0-0 (+0.74u at flat stakes).