Serie A · Sun · 13:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Lazio are priced at 1.76, implying roughly a 57 percent win probability and clear market favouritism over Monza.
Monza's 5.3 price implies under 19 percent, positioning them as considerable outsiders according to the market.
The draw at 3.86 (about 26 percent) sits between the two win probabilities, a fairly standard spread for a heavily one-sided fixture.
The recommended Over 2.25 goals bet at 1.85 carries a negative value edge of -4.13 percent, meaning the model's own estimate is slightly below what the odds imply, so it should be treated as a moderate-confidence lean rather than a clear value edge.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LAZ | X | 2 · MON |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.77 | 3.81 | 5.30 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.76 | 3.75 | 4.90 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.76 | 3.75 | 4.90 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.72 | 3.70 | 5.15 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.72 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| Betsson | 1.72 | 3.50 | 5.40 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Serie A action sees Lazio host Monza with the betting market firmly behind the home side. Best-priced odds of 1.76 on Lazio imply a win probability of roughly 57 percent, a clear signal of favouritism, while Monza's 5.3 quote translates to just under 19 percent. The draw sits at 3.86, or about 26 percent, leaving a reasonably tight overround across the three outcomes. Away from the match-result market, our model points to the goals total rather than the result, flagging Over 2.25 goals at 1.85 with Pinnacle as its recommended angle, backed by a 52 percent implied confidence level. No standout value picks emerged from our consensus scan for the 1x2 market itself, so this preview leans on the goals line as the more actionable angle for Lazio vs Monza.
Verdict: The market strongly favours Lazio, but the more relevant angle here is the goals market. Over 2.25 at 1.85 comes with 52 percent model confidence yet a negative value edge, so it is not a standout value bet. Stake conservatively and treat it as a measured, not high-conviction, selection.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | AC Milan v Lecce | 1.26 | 6.60 | 16.00 |
| 10 Oct 13:00 | Genoa v Fiorentina | 3.25 | 3.48 | 2.45 |
| 10 Oct 16:00 | Inter Milan v Parma | 1.14 | 10.60 | 22.00 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Napoli v Frosinone | 1.49 | 4.94 | 7.50 |
| 11 Oct 10:30 | Como v AS Roma | 2.64 | 3.67 | 2.88 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lecce v Bologna | 4.21 | 3.50 | 2.08 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Sassuolo v AC Milan | 4.58 | 3.93 | 1.85 |
| 11 Oct 18:45 | Cagliari v Juventus | 6.50 | 4.25 | 1.62 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +11 | 13 |
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 6 | Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Milan | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 9 | Napoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Udinese | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Torino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.25 goals at odds of 1.85, with a 52% confidence rating.
Lazio are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.76, which implies a win probability of around 57 percent, compared with Monza's 5.3 (about 19 percent).
The draw is available at 3.86, implying an approximate 26 percent chance according to the market.
No 1x2 value picks cleared our threshold. The model instead highlights Over 2.25 goals at 1.85 with 52 percent implied confidence, though this comes with a slightly negative value edge of -4.13 percent, so it should be viewed as a measured lean rather than strong value.
Lazio vs Monza takes place Sun · 13:00 in the Serie A.
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