Liga Profesional · Tue · 00:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Lanus are market favourites at 2.38, implying about 42% win probability, ahead of Estudiantes at 3.45 (around 29%).
The draw at 2.93 (about 34% implied) is priced closely enough to both team outcomes to suggest a competitive, tightly-rated match.
The recommended Over 1.5 goals bet at 1.61 carries roughly 62% implied probability, though the model's confidence is slightly lower at 59%.
No outright value picks against the match-result market cleared the site's threshold, and the goals angle itself shows a small negative edge of -4.96%.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 15.2% | 6.59 |
| 1-0 | 15.0% | 6.65 |
| 0-1 | 13.6% | 7.37 |
| 1-1 | 13.5% | 7.43 |
| 2-0 | 7.4% | 13.42 |
| 2-1 | 6.7% | 14.99 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.99 and 0.90. These six scorelines cover 71% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LAN | X | 2 · EST |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.26 | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | 2.16 | 3.05 | 3.87 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.23 | 3.00 | 3.72 |
| BetAnything | 2.23 | 3.00 | 3.72 |
| 1xBet | 2.17 | 3.06 | 3.78 |
| Betsson | 2.12 | 3.10 | 3.70 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Lanus host Estudiantes in a Liga Profesional clash where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them overwhelming favourites. Lanus are priced at 2.38 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 42% chance of victory, while Estudiantes sit out at 3.45 with Codere (IT), translating to around 29%. The draw is also live at 2.93, implying close to 34%, underlining how tightly this one is rated by bookmakers. Rather than steering bettors toward the match result, our model points to the goals market, recommending Over 1.5 goals at 1.61 with 1xBet. That price carries an implied probability near 62%, though the model's own confidence sits at 59%, producing a modest negative value edge. It is a pragmatic angle in a fixture where the outright winner is genuinely uncertain on the numbers.
Verdict: Over 1.5 goals at 1.61 is the only angle flagged, but with a -4.96% edge it is not a standout value play, just a reasonably likely outcome per the model. Treat it as a moderate-confidence selection rather than a strong recommendation, and size stakes with normal bankroll discipline.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:45 | San Lorenzo v Boca Juniors | 17.50 | 3.10 | 1.65 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Platense v Newells Old Boys | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Rosario Central v Argentinos Juniors | 2.08 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
| 20 Sept 22:15 | Belgrano de Cordoba v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.48 | 4.20 | 10.50 |
| 21 Sept 00:30 | Velez Sarsfield BA v CA Tigre BA | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| 21 Sept 17:30 | Aldosivi Mar del Plata v Atlético Tucuman | 3.35 | 2.98 | 2.58 |
| 21 Sept 22:00 | Barracas Central v Independiente Rivadavia | 3.45 | 3.01 | 2.50 |
| 2 Oct 22:15 | Independiente v Instituto de Córdoba | 2.46 | 3.10 | 3.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.56, with a 61% confidence rating.
Lanus are the market favourites at 2.38 with 1xBet, implying roughly a 42% chance of winning, compared with about 29% implied for Estudiantes at 3.45.
The draw is available at 2.93 with 1xBet, which implies a probability of around 34%, fairly close to both teams' win probabilities.
No match-result value picks cleared the site's threshold. The one flagged angle, Over 1.5 goals at 1.61, actually shows a slightly negative edge of -4.96%, so it should be viewed as moderate confidence rather than a clear value bet.
Lanus vs Estudiantes takes place Tue · 00:15 in the Liga Profesional.
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