MLS · kicked off 20 Aug 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
The match-result odds are almost level, with LA Galaxy at 2.5 (about 40% implied) and San Jose at 2.56 (about 39%), a gap of just one tick.
The draw is priced at 4.28, implying roughly 23%, but our model rates its fair probability nearer 26%, producing a positive value edge of about 12.96%.
The recommended Under 3.5 goals at 1.76 carries around 55% market-implied confidence, though the value edge is slightly negative at -3.02%.
With the two teams so tightly priced, the market sees no clear favourite, which supports a lower-scoring, competitive expectation.
W/D/L shown from LA Galaxy's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
This California Clasico between LA Galaxy and San Jose Earthquakes is one of the closest calls on the MLS board, and the prices reflect that. LA Galaxy sit as narrow favourites at 2.5, implying roughly a 40% chance of victory, while San Jose Earthquakes are barely behind at 2.56, or about 39%. That gap of a single tick tells you the market sees these two as near-mirror images heading into kick-off. The draw is offered at 4.28, worth around 23% in implied terms. With so little separating the sides, our model leans away from picking a winner and toward the goals market: Under 3.5 goals at 1.76 carries a market-implied confidence of about 55%. Separately, our value screen flags the draw at 4.28 as the standout number against consensus. Two evenly matched teams often make for cagey affairs, which is the logic underpinning both angles here.
Verdict: The model's pick is Under 3.5 goals at 1.76, backed by roughly 55% implied confidence but a small negative value edge, so treat it as a lean rather than a strong spot. The draw at 4.28 is the more genuine value angle. Stake responsibly given how evenly matched these sides are.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 1-0, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip was San Jose Earthquakes to win at odds of 3.00.
LA Galaxy are marginal favourites at 2.5, implying about 40%, with San Jose Earthquakes right behind at 2.56, roughly 39%. The difference is essentially negligible.
The draw is priced at 4.28 with 1xBet, implying around 23%. Our model rates its fair probability closer to 26%, which is why it flags as a value pick.
Our value screen highlights the draw at 4.28 with an edge of about 12.96% versus consensus. The recommended Under 3.5 goals at 1.76 has a slightly negative edge of -3.02%, so it is more of a confidence lean than a value play.
The tip lost — final score 1-0 (-1.00u at flat stakes).
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