Süper Lig · Sat · 16:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Trabzonspor are the market favourites at 2.18 (about 46% implied), ahead of Kasimpasa SK at 3.41 (roughly 29%).
The draw is priced at 3.75, implying near 27%, keeping a share of three outcomes in play.
Over 2.5 goals sits at 1.92 with around 51% implied confidence, but the value edge is negative at -2.77%.
The draw shows a positive value edge of 6.91%, with a fair probability estimate of 29% against the 3.75 price.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa SK | 4.10 | Tipico | 24.4% |
| Trabzonspor | 1.90 | 1xBet | 52.6% |
| Draw | 3.83 | 1xBet | 26.1% |
This Süper Lig meeting sends Trabzonspor to Kasimpasa SK as the clearer favourite in the eyes of the market. Trabzonspor are priced at 2.18, which implies roughly a 46% chance of a win, while home side Kasimpasa SK sit at 3.41, or about 29% in probability terms. The draw is offered at 3.75, close to a 27% implied likelihood. So the market leans towards the visitors without treating them as overwhelming favourites, and a stalemate remains a live possibility. Our model does not chase the match result here; instead it looks at goals, with Over 2.5 goals available at 1.92 and a market-implied confidence around 51%. That said, the value edge on the Over is negative at -2.77%, so it is more of a lean than a standout price. The one flagged value angle is on the draw, priced at 3.75 against a fair probability estimate of 29%.
Verdict: The recommended lean is Over 2.5 goals at 1.92, backed by roughly 51% model confidence but carrying a slightly negative value edge, so treat it as marginal rather than strong. The draw at 3.75 offers the only flagged positive edge. Stake responsibly and size accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 18:30 | Galatasaray v Akhisar Belediyespor | 1.20 | 7.29 | 12.50 |
| 15 Aug 16:00 | Torku Konyaspor v Çaykur Rizespor | 2.56 | 3.30 | 3.14 |
| 15 Aug 18:30 | Genclerbirligi SK v Fenerbahce | 6.81 | 4.58 | 1.50 |
| 15 Aug 18:30 | Gazişehir Gaziantep v Alanyaspor | 2.66 | 3.50 | 2.71 |
| 16 Aug 16:00 | Basaksehir v Kocaelispor | 1.55 | 4.40 | 6.75 |
| 16 Aug 18:30 | Amed SK v Erzurum BB | 2.25 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| 16 Aug 18:30 | Besiktas JK v Eyüpspor | 1.35 | 5.70 | 8.95 |
| 17 Aug 18:30 | Samsunspor v Goztepe | 2.20 | 3.43 | 3.52 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.83, with a 53% confidence rating.
Trabzonspor are the favourites at 2.18, implying about a 46% win chance. Kasimpasa SK are priced at 3.41, roughly 29%.
The best available draw price is 3.75 at Coolbet, which implies around a 27% chance. Our model rates its fair probability near 29%, giving a positive value edge of about 6.91%.
The flagged value pick is the draw at 3.75, with a 6.91% edge over its estimated fair probability. The Over 2.5 goals lean at 1.92 has a negative edge of -2.77%, so it is marginal at best.
Kasimpasa SK vs Trabzonspor takes place Sat · 16:00 in the Süper Lig.
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