Ekstraklasa · kicked off 20 Sept 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Match-result prices are tightly bunched: 2.7 for Jagiellonia, 2.55 for Legia, 3.6 for the draw, indicating a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Implied probabilities sit at roughly 37% for Jagiellonia, 39% for Legia, and 28% for the draw, leaving only a couple of points between the two match-winner outcomes.
The model's recommended bet, Jagiellonia to win at 2.7, carries a modest 3.76% value edge over the market-implied probability.
No other selection in this market cleared the value threshold, meaning the Legia and draw prices are viewed as fairly reflecting the market's own assessment.
W/D/L shown from Jagiellonia Białystok's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Jagiellonia Białystok host Legia Warszawa in an Ekstraklasa fixture where the bookmakers see very little separating the two sides. Legia are priced marginally shorter at 2.55 with Pinnacle, implying a probability of roughly 39%, while Jagiellonia sit at 2.7 with Unibet (SE), implying close to 37%. The draw, at 3.6 with Coolbet, is priced at around 28%, rounding out a market that views this as a tight, competitive derby-style clash with no side installed as a clear favourite. Despite Legia carrying the narrowest odds, our model flags Jagiellonia's price as offering value, recommending a back at 2.7 with a modelled edge of 3.76% and a implied confidence of 38%. This suggests the model rates Jagiellonia's true winning chances slightly higher than the current market price reflects, though the gap to Legia remains small and the outcome is far from settled on paper.
Verdict: The model leans toward Jagiellonia at 2.7, citing a modest 3.76% edge and 38% implied confidence, but the tight spread across all three outcomes underlines a genuinely uncertain fixture. This is a value-based lean rather than a strong favourite pick, so stake sizing should reflect that moderate risk.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 1-3, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:15 | Lech Poznań v Radomiak Radom | 1.14 | 10.00 | 28.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip was Jagiellonia Białystok to win at odds of 2.70.
The market makes Legia Warszawa the narrow favourite at 2.55 with Pinnacle, implying about 39% probability, compared to Jagiellonia's 2.7 (around 37%). The gap is small, reflecting a closely matched fixture.
The draw is available at 3.6 with Coolbet, which implies a probability of roughly 28%, the lowest of the three outcomes but still a meaningful share of the market.
The model identifies value on Jagiellonia Białystok to win at 2.7, calculating a 3.76% edge over the implied market price, though no other selections met the value threshold in this analysis.
The tip lost — final score 1-3 (-1.00u at flat stakes).
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