Greek Super League · kicked off 12 Sept 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Atromitos Athens carry the shortest price at 2.54, implying roughly 39% win probability, the highest of the three outcomes
Iraklis FC are priced at 2.78 (about 36% implied), keeping the gap to the favourite relatively tight
The draw at 3.10 implies around 32%, reflecting a genuinely open contest rather than a lopsided one
The model's recommended Atromitos win carries a negative value edge of -6.27%, meaning the price does not offer a statistical advantage by the model's own measure
W/D/L shown from Iraklis FC's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Iraklis FC host Atromitos Athens in a Greek Super League fixture where the betting market leans, if only modestly, toward the visitors. Atromitos are priced at 2.54 with Suprabets, which implies a win probability of roughly 39%, the shortest price of the three outcomes. Iraklis sit at 2.78 (about 36% implied) and the draw is quoted at 3.10 (around 32%), so all three results remain live according to the odds. This is not a heavily one-sided match on paper; the gap between favourite and underdog is narrow. Our model does flag Atromitos to win at 2.54 as its recommended selection, with a market-implied confidence of 37%, though it also reports a negative value edge of -6.27%, suggesting the price is not clearly generous relative to the model's own assessment. Bettors weighing this fixture in the Super League should treat it as competitive rather than a strong favourite scenario.
Verdict: Atromitos Athens at 2.54 is the model's nominal pick and the market's slight favourite, but with only 37% implied confidence and a negative value edge, this is not presented as a strong or clearly profitable angle. Treat it as a moderate-risk selection in a fairly balanced fixture, and size stakes cautiously.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 1-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:00 | Panetolikos Agrinio v PAOK Thessaloniki | 170.00 | 29.00 | 1.03 |
| 10 Oct 15:00 | PAOK Thessaloniki v Kalamata FC | 1.25 | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | AEK Athens v OFI Crete | 1.20 | 6.10 | 14.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Asteras Tripolis v Atromitos Athens | 2.45 | 3.16 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | Iraklis FC v Levadiakos | 2.47 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | AE Kifisia FC v Panetolikos Agrinio | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Aris Thessaloniki v Volos FC | 1.77 | 3.60 | 5.15 |
| 11 Oct 18:00 | Olympiakos Piraeus v Panathinaikos | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.39 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip was Atromitos Athens to win at odds of 2.65.
Atromitos Athens are the market favourite at odds of 2.54, implying roughly a 39% win probability, slightly ahead of Iraklis FC at 2.78 (about 36%).
The best available draw price is 3.10 with Betsson, which implies a probability of approximately 32%.
The model recommends Atromitos Athens to win at 2.54, but reports a negative value edge of -6.27% and only 37% implied confidence, so it is not flagged as a strong value opportunity based on the given data.
The tip lost — final score 1-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).
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