Brasileirão · Mon · 23:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Internacional are strong favourites at 1.62, an implied probability of roughly 62%, well ahead of Remo.
Remo at 5.81 sit around 17% implied, marking them clearly as the underdogs in this matchup.
The draw is priced at 3.93, about 25% implied, a typical middle-ground figure for a match with a defined favourite.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.88 shows a negative value edge of -3.8%, so the market appears to price this outcome efficiently rather than offering an edge.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.1% | 8.26 |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | 8.83 |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | 10.72 |
| 2-0 | 8.7% | 11.45 |
| 0-1 | 7.9% | 12.72 |
| 0-0 | 7.3% | 13.61 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.54 and 1.07. These six scorelines cover 57% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Internacional's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional | 1.62 | Coolbet | 61.7% |
| Remo | 5.81 | 1xBet | 17.2% |
| Draw | 3.93 | 1xBet | 25.4% |
Internacional host Remo in this Brasileirão fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. At a best price of 1.62, Internacional are priced as clear favourites, implying roughly a 62% chance of victory before any margin adjustment. Remo, by contrast, are the outsiders at 5.81, translating to around a 17% implied probability, while the draw sits at 3.93, or about 25%. That is a substantial gap in the two team-result prices and reflects the market's strong lean toward the hosts. Our model's attention, though, is on the goals market rather than the winner. It highlights Under 2.5 goals at 1.88, with a market-implied confidence of about 51%. Notably, that price carries a negative value edge of -3.8%, meaning the market may already have this outcome fairly, if not slightly generously, priced. No value picks cleared our threshold here, so this is a preview to read with a measured eye.
Verdict: The model points to Under 2.5 goals at 1.88, with roughly 51% implied confidence. It is a coin-flip-adjacent pick rather than a standout value play, and the -3.8% edge is a reminder there is no market advantage here. Treat it as a modest, higher-uncertainty selection and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 19:00 | Grêmio v Sao Paulo | 2.45 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| 8 Aug 21:30 | Remo v Atletico Mineiro | 3.08 | 3.40 | 2.48 |
| 8 Aug 23:30 | Coritiba v Chapecoense | 1.66 | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| 9 Aug 00:00 | Botafogo v Fluminense | 2.67 | 3.40 | 2.93 |
| 9 Aug 14:00 | Cruzeiro v Mirassol | 1.72 | 3.85 | 5.32 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Palmeiras v Internacional | 1.64 | 3.90 | 6.20 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Bahia v Vasco da Gama | 1.94 | 3.76 | 4.30 |
| 9 Aug 21:30 | Santos v Atletico Paranaense | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.61 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | +22 | 47 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | +19 | 39 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | +9 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | +5 | 34 |
| 5 | Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | +4 | 32 |
| 6 | Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | +6 | 31 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | -3 | 30 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | +2 | 29 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 29 |
| 10 | Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -3 | 27 |
| 12 | São Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | +2 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitória | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 26 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 16 | Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 22 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | -8 | 21 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 21 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -22 | 10 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.98, with a 49% confidence rating.
Internacional are the favourites at a best price of 1.62, which implies about a 62% chance of victory. Remo are the outsiders at 5.81, roughly 17% implied.
The draw is priced at 3.93 with 1xBet, corresponding to an implied probability of around 25%.
No value picks cleared our threshold for this fixture. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.88 actually shows a negative value edge of -3.8%, suggesting the market has it priced efficiently.
Internacional vs Remo takes place Mon · 23:00 in the Brasileirão.
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