Brasileirão · Wed · 22:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Internacional are priced at 2.19, implying roughly a 46 percent chance of victory, the shortest price of the three match-result outcomes.
Corinthians sit at 3.55 (about 28 percent implied) and the draw is priced at 3.30 (about 30 percent implied), showing the market sees a home lean but not a runaway favourite.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals selection is priced at 2.23 with a 43 percent implied confidence from the model, but carries a negative value edge of -3.86 percent versus the market line.
No additional value picks were flagged above the site's threshold for this fixture, suggesting the market prices here are seen as broadly efficient.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.5% | 7.42 |
| 1-1 | 13.3% | 7.52 |
| 0-0 | 11.2% | 8.90 |
| 0-1 | 11.1% | 9.03 |
| 2-0 | 8.1% | 12.36 |
| 2-1 | 8.0% | 12.53 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.20 and 0.99. These six scorelines cover 65% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Internacional's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · INT | X | 2 · COR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.38 | 3.08 | 3.04 |
| Betsson | 2.38 | 3.05 | 3.05 |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.33 | 3.16 | 3.00 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.35 | 3.00 | 3.05 |
| 888sport | 2.38 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Internacional host Corinthians in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market clearly favours the home side. Best available prices from 1xBet put Internacional at 2.19, which converts to an implied probability of roughly 46 percent, well ahead of Corinthians at 3.55 (about 28 percent) and the draw at 3.30 (around 30 percent). Those numbers point to a moderate home edge rather than a one-sided contest, since the gap between favourite and underdog still leaves reasonable space for either the draw or an away result. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 2.23 as its recommended angle, with an implied confidence of 43 percent and a value edge of minus 3.86 percent versus the market price, indicating the bet is not obviously undervalued on our metrics.
Verdict: The data points to Internacional as a moderate market favourite, though not overwhelmingly so, with the draw and Corinthians both carrying meaningful implied probability. The Over 2.5 goals pick is the model's headline suggestion, but its negative value edge means it should be treated as a speculative angle rather than a confident value play. Stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
| 7 Oct 23:30 | Botafogo v Vasco da Gama | 2.67 | 3.35 | 2.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.23, with a 43% confidence rating.
Based on best available odds, Internacional are favourites at 2.19, implying an approximate 46 percent chance of winning, compared with Corinthians at 3.55 (about 28 percent).
The draw is priced at 3.30 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 30 percent probability, sitting between the two teams' win probabilities.
The model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 2.23 as its recommended bet, but this comes with a negative value edge of -3.86 percent, meaning it is not flagged as a strong value opportunity versus the market price. No other value picks cleared the site's threshold for this fixture.
Internacional vs Corinthians takes place Wed · 22:30 in the Brasileirão.
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