Champions League · Tue · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Inter Milan's 1.33 price implies about 75% win probability, reflecting a strong market lean toward the hosts.
Club Brugge's 11.0 odds imply only around 9% chance of an away win, underlining the scale of the mismatch as priced.
The draw at 5.84 (about 17% implied) is flagged with an 18.51% edge against a fair probability estimate of 20%, making it a notable value angle.
The Over 3.5 goals line at 2.41 shows a 10.02% edge with 46% model confidence, suggesting the goals market may offer more value than the outright result market.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.0% | 11.12 |
| 3-1 | 7.4% | 13.44 |
| 1-1 | 7.2% | 13.79 |
| 2-0 | 6.6% | 15.11 |
| 2-2 | 6.1% | 16.37 |
| 3-0 | 5.5% | 18.25 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.48 and 1.36. These six scorelines cover 42% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · IM | X | 2 · CB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.32 | 5.95 | 11.20 |
| Coolbet | 1.29 | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| Betfair | 1.28 | 6.00 | 11.50 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.30 | 5.30 | 12.00 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.29 | 5.70 | 10.75 |
| GTbets | 1.31 | 5.36 | 10.08 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Inter Milan host Club Brugge in the Champions League with the betting market leaving little doubt about the expected outcome. Best odds of 1.33 on an Inter win imply a probability of roughly 75%, making the Italian side heavy favourites, while Club Brugge's 11.0 price points to just above 9% implied chance of an away win. The draw sits at 5.84, translating to around 17% implied probability. Alongside these match-result prices, our model flags value on two fronts: the draw looks underpriced relative to a fair probability estimate of 20%, and the Over 3.5 goals market at 2.41 carries a model-implied confidence of 46%, suggesting the market may be underestimating the chance of a high-scoring contest. Bettors weighing this fixture have several angles to consider beyond the straightforward favourite tag.
Verdict: The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.41 carries a moderate risk profile, backed by a 46% model confidence and a 10% edge over the market price. It is not a certainty, and with Inter heavily favoured to win outright, the scoreline path to four-plus goals still depends on game state and finishing.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 16:45 | RC Lens v Sporting Lisbon | 2.47 | 3.95 | 2.86 |
| 13 Oct 16:45 | Sabah FK v Slavia Praha | 3.72 | 4.00 | 2.06 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Arsenal v Lille | 1.33 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Villarreal v Napoli | 2.42 | 3.75 | 3.12 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven | 2.08 | 4.30 | 3.40 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Viking FK v Bayern Munich | 26.00 | 14.70 | 1.12 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Atlético Madrid v Manchester United | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.97 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Galatasaray v Barcelona | 9.30 | 6.50 | 1.35 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 3 | Barça | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 4 | Man United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 5 | Como 1907 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | RC Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 | PAE AEK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Shaktar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | PSV | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Club Brugge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Lille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Atleti | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Inter | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | LASK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | Galatasaray | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Viking | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah FK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Sl. Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodø/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.67, with a 59% confidence rating.
Inter Milan are strong favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.33, which implies roughly a 75% chance of victory. Club Brugge, at 11.0, are priced as firm underdogs with an implied win probability of about 9%.
The draw is available at 5.84, implying around a 17% chance according to the market. Our model estimates a fair probability of 20% for the draw, which is why it is flagged as a value pick with an 18.51% edge.
Based on the data, two areas show potential value: the draw at 5.84 against a fair probability of 20%, and the Over 3.5 goals market at 2.41, which carries a 10.02% edge and 46% model confidence. Neither is a guaranteed outcome, so normal bankroll caution applies.
Inter Milan vs Club Brugge takes place Tue · 19:00 in the Champions League.
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