Liga Profesional · Sat · 00:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Independiente Rivadavia are priced at 1.71, implying an approximate 58 percent chance of victory, the clearest signal in this match's pricing.
Gimnasia La Plata's 5.24 price implies only around 19 percent, reflecting a sizeable gap between the two sides in the eyes of the market.
The draw at 3.6 implies roughly 28 percent, keeping it a live secondary option behind the home win.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.02 carries a negative value edge of minus 5.1 percent and a model confidence of 47 percent, so it should not be viewed as a standout value play.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.8% | 7.81 |
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 8.35 |
| 2-0 | 10.1% | 9.94 |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | 10.62 |
| 0-0 | 8.2% | 12.27 |
| 0-1 | 7.6% | 13.11 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.57 and 0.94. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · IR | X | 2 · GLP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.71 | 3.57 | 5.36 |
| Betsson | 1.68 | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.68 | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.67 | 3.50 | 5.25 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.58 | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.56 | 3.30 | 4.70 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Independiente Rivadavia host Gimnasia La Plata in a Liga Profesional fixture where the betting market has a clear view on the outcome. Best odds of 1.71 on Independiente Rivadavia imply a win probability of roughly 58 percent, making them strong favourites on paper, while Gimnasia La Plata's 5.24 price points to just under 19 percent. The draw sits at 3.6, implying close to 28 percent, a live but secondary outcome according to the market. Away from the result market, our model flags Over 2.5 goals at 2.02 as its recommended angle, though it comes with a market-implied confidence of 47 percent and a value edge of minus 5.1 percent, meaning the numbers do not clearly favour backing it over what the odds already price in. This preview looks at how the pricing breaks down across both markets and what that means for anyone considering a bet on this Argentine top-flight clash.
Verdict: The market strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia, with the draw a distant second and Gimnasia La Plata a clear outsider. The flagged Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.02 has a negative edge per the model, so it is a plain pick rather than a confident value angle; stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:45 | San Lorenzo v Boca Juniors | 17.50 | 3.10 | 1.65 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Platense v Newells Old Boys | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Rosario Central v Argentinos Juniors | 2.08 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
| 20 Sept 22:15 | Belgrano de Cordoba v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.48 | 4.20 | 10.50 |
| 21 Sept 00:30 | Velez Sarsfield BA v CA Tigre BA | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| 21 Sept 17:30 | Aldosivi Mar del Plata v Atlético Tucuman | 3.35 | 2.98 | 2.58 |
| 21 Sept 22:00 | Barracas Central v Independiente Rivadavia | 3.45 | 3.01 | 2.50 |
| 22 Sept 00:15 | Lanus v Estudiantes | 2.26 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.80, with a 53% confidence rating.
Independiente Rivadavia are the clear favourites, priced at 1.71, which implies roughly a 58 percent win probability according to the market.
The draw is priced at 3.6, implying an approximate 28 percent chance based on the current market data.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.02 has a negative value edge of minus 5.1 percent and 47 percent model confidence, so it is not flagged as a strong value opportunity.
Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia La Plata takes place Sat · 00:30 in the Liga Profesional.
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