Allsvenskan · Mon · 17:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Sirius at 1.35 are heavy favourites, with an implied probability near 74%, while Brommapojkarna at 8.5 sit around 12%.
The draw is priced at 5.3, roughly 19% implied, and our model assigns it a fair probability of 22%, giving a positive edge of 15.1%.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 1.94 carries a market-implied confidence of about 49% but shows a negative value edge of -5.83%.
The wide price gap between home and away suggests the market sees a clear mismatch on paper.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| IF Brommapojkarna | 10.06 | Pinnacle | 9.9% |
| IK Sirius | 1.34 | Coolbet | 74.6% |
| Draw | 6.25 | Unibet (SE) | 16.0% |
This Allsvenskan fixture sees IK Sirius host IF Brommapojkarna, and the market leaves little doubt about which side it favours. Sirius are priced at 1.35, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 74%, marking them as strong home favourites. Brommapojkarna, by contrast, are out at 8.5 (around 12% implied), while the draw sits at 5.3, close to a 19% chance before any margin adjustment. The gap between the two sides is substantial in the bookmakers' eyes. Rather than backing the short-priced favourite, our model turns to the goals market, recommending Over 3.5 goals at 1.94. That price carries a market-implied confidence of about 49%, though it is worth noting the model flags a negative value edge here. Elsewhere, the standout value signal from our figures points to the draw, which we cover in more detail below.
Verdict: The model's headline pick is Over 3.5 goals at 1.94, a high-scoring wager with roughly 49% implied confidence but a negative value edge, so treat it as speculative. The standout value signal is actually the draw at 5.3. Stake responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 13:00 | Örgryte IS v AIK | 3.34 | 3.80 | 2.23 |
| 8 Aug 15:30 | Mjällby AIF v IF Elfsborg | 2.44 | 3.45 | 3.20 |
| 9 Aug 12:00 | Malmo FF v Degerfors IF | 1.55 | 5.10 | 8.00 |
| 9 Aug 12:00 | Hammarby IF v BK Hacken | 1.55 | 5.30 | 7.00 |
| 9 Aug 14:30 | Halmstads BK v GAIS | 5.40 | 4.10 | 1.71 |
| 9 Aug 14:30 | IFK Goteborg v Kalmar FF | 2.32 | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| 10 Aug 17:00 | Västerås SK v Djurgardens IF | 4.40 | 4.15 | 1.89 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.98, with a 49% confidence rating.
IK Sirius are clear favourites at 1.35, an implied probability of about 74%. IF Brommapojkarna are outsiders at 8.5, around 12%.
The best available draw price is 5.3 at Winamax (DE), implying roughly 19%. Our model rates its fair probability at 22%, giving a value edge of 15.1%.
The strongest value signal in our data is the draw at 5.3, with a 15.1% edge. The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 1.94 actually shows a negative edge of -5.83%, so it is more of a speculative play.
IK Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna takes place Mon · 17:00 in the Allsvenskan.
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