Eredivisie · Sun · 14:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
FC Twente are the favourites at 2.19 (around 46% implied), with Heerenveen the outsiders at 3.2 (around 31%).
The draw is priced at 4.0, implying roughly 25%, and our model rates its fair probability higher at 26%.
That gives the draw a positive value edge of about 5.74% versus the market consensus.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals pick at 2.2 sits at 44% implied confidence but shows a negative edge of -4.1%, so the price is not in your favour.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.3% | 8.85 |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | 11.75 |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | 12.06 |
| 1-0 | 7.7% | 13.00 |
| 0-1 | 7.5% | 13.33 |
| 2-2 | 6.2% | 16.03 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.51 and 1.47. These six scorelines cover 50% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Heerenveen's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente Enschede | 2.19 | 1xBet | 45.7% |
| Heerenveen | 3.20 | Tipico | 31.3% |
| Draw | 4.00 | Coolbet | 25.0% |
This Eredivisie meeting between Heerenveen and FC Twente Enschede sees the visitors installed as market favourites. FC Twente are priced around 2.19, which implies roughly a 46% chance of taking all three points, while Heerenveen at 3.2 sit closer to 31% in probability terms. The draw drifts out to 4.0, translating to about 25%. That spread points to a contest where Twente are respected on the road but far from a certainty, with Heerenveen still holding meaningful home hopes. Our model leans towards a goals angle here, flagging Over 3.5 goals at 2.2, priced at roughly 44% implied confidence. Worth noting: that particular pick carries a negative value edge of -4.1%, so it looks more like a lean than a standout price. The more interesting number on paper is the draw, where our fair-probability read suggests a small positive edge against the 4.0 quote.
Verdict: The model's headline lean is Over 3.5 goals at 2.2, a high-scoring bet with around 44% implied confidence and a slightly negative value edge, making it speculative rather than strong. The draw at 4.0 offers the only positive edge on the card. Stake carefully and treat both as modest positions.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 18:00 | SC Cambuur v Excelsior | 2.60 | 3.75 | 2.65 |
| 8 Aug 14:30 | NEC Nijmegen v SC Telstar | 1.52 | 5.10 | 7.50 |
| 8 Aug 16:45 | Go Ahead Eagles v Willem II | 1.71 | 4.30 | 5.00 |
| 8 Aug 18:00 | PSV Eindhoven v Fortuna Sittard | 1.24 | 8.60 | 14.50 |
| 8 Aug 19:00 | AZ Alkmaar v ADO Den Haag | 1.50 | 4.90 | 6.75 |
| 9 Aug 10:15 | Sparta Rotterdam v Feyenoord | 5.10 | 4.30 | 1.72 |
| 9 Aug 12:30 | Groningen v FC Utrecht | 2.43 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| 9 Aug 12:30 | FC Zwolle v Ajax | 7.00 | 4.80 | 1.52 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.20, with a 44% confidence rating.
FC Twente Enschede are the favourites at 2.19, implying about a 46% chance, while Heerenveen are priced at 3.2 (around 31%).
The best available draw price is 4.0 with Unibet (NL), implying roughly a 25% chance. Our model rates its fair probability at 26%, giving a small positive edge of about 5.74%.
Over 3.5 goals is offered at 2.2 with around 44% implied confidence, but the value edge is negative at -4.1%, meaning the price does not currently favour the bettor. The draw shows better value on the numbers.
Heerenveen vs FC Twente Enschede takes place Sun · 14:45 in the Eredivisie.
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