Austrian Bundesliga · Sat · 17:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Sturm Graz are strong favourites at 1.68, implying roughly a 60% chance, well ahead of Hartberg at 5.3 (around 19%).
The draw is priced at 4.0, an implied probability of about 25%, underlining the market's clear lean towards the visitors.
The recommended Over 2.75 goals at 2.0 carries a market-implied confidence of about 48% but a negative value edge of -3.9%.
No selections cleared our value threshold against market consensus, so there is no standout edge in the result market here.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hartberg | 5.30 | Tipico | 18.9% |
| Sturm Graz | 1.68 | Nordic Bet | 59.5% |
| Draw | 4.00 | Coolbet | 25.0% |
The Austrian Bundesliga meeting between Hartberg and Sturm Graz sees the visitors installed as clear favourites. Sturm Graz are priced at 1.68 with Nordic Bet, which translates to a market-implied probability of around 60%, while Hartberg are much longer at 5.3 (roughly 19%). The draw sits at 4.0, implying about 25%, reflecting a match where the market leans firmly towards one side rather than a tight contest. Rather than backing the result, our model looks at the goals market and recommends Over 2.75 goals at 2.0 with BetOnline.ag, carrying a market-implied confidence near 48%. Notably, the value edge on that selection is slightly negative at -3.9%, meaning the price offers no clear edge over the implied probability. With no value picks clearing our threshold in the match-result market, this is a fixture where the favourite is respected but the numbers advise caution.
Verdict: The model points to Over 2.75 goals at 2.0, a roughly coin-flip proposition with market-implied confidence near 48%. Be aware the value edge is negative at -3.9%, so this is a marginal call rather than a priced advantage. Treat it as a modest-risk lean and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 17:30 | Rheindorf Altach v WSG Tirol | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| 8 Aug 15:00 | Grazer AK v Austria Lustenau | 2.08 | 3.50 | 3.57 |
| 9 Aug 15:00 | Wolfsberger AC v RB Salzburg | 3.80 | 3.87 | 1.91 |
| 9 Aug 15:00 | Ried v Rapid Wien | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.44 |
| 9 Aug 17:00 | Austria Wien v LASK | 3.70 | 3.67 | 2.05 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.75 goals at odds of 1.84, with a 52% confidence rating.
Sturm Graz are the favourites at 1.68, implying about a 60% chance. Hartberg are the outsiders at 5.3, roughly 19% implied.
The draw is available at 4.0, which corresponds to an implied probability of around 25%.
No selections cleared our value threshold, and the recommended Over 2.75 goals at 2.0 actually shows a slightly negative edge of -3.9%, so there is no clear value here.
Hartberg vs Sturm Graz takes place Sat · 17:30 in the Austrian Bundesliga.
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