Eliteserien · Sun · 15:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
HamKam are favoured at 2.18 (about 46% implied), with Aalesund the outsiders at 3.37 (roughly 30%).
The draw is priced at 3.85, implying around a 26% chance of the points being shared.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.48 carries a market-implied confidence near 39%.
No value picks cleared our threshold, and the Under 2.5 selection shows a negative edge of -4.24%, so it is a model lean rather than a priced-in advantage.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aalesund | 3.37 | Coolbet | 29.7% |
| HamKam | 2.18 | Nordic Bet | 45.9% |
| Draw | 3.85 | Coolbet | 26.0% |
HamKam host Aalesund in this Eliteserien fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about which side it prefers. At best odds of 2.18, HamKam are the favourites, a price that implies roughly a 46% chance of a home win. Aalesund are the outsiders at 3.37, translating to about 30% in probability terms, while the draw sits at 3.85, or around 26%. Those figures point to a contest the market sees as tilted toward HamKam without being a foregone conclusion. Our model's attention falls not on the result but on the goal line: Under 2.5 goals is the recommended angle at 2.48 with Nordic Bet, reflecting a market-implied confidence of around 39%. It is worth noting the calculated value edge here is negative at -4.24%, so this is a lean based on the model's read of a lower-scoring game rather than a clear pricing advantage.
Verdict: The suggested play is Under 2.5 goals at 2.48, reflecting the model's view of a lower-scoring match. With a negative value edge of -4.24% and confidence near 39%, this is a modest lean rather than a strong signal. Treat it accordingly and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 17:00 | Sandefjord v KFUM | 2.11 | 3.75 | 3.63 |
| 8 Aug 12:00 | Vålerenga v Bodø/Glimt | 6.60 | 5.17 | 1.48 |
| 8 Aug 14:00 | Viking FK v Sarpsborg FK | 1.38 | 5.63 | 7.60 |
| 8 Aug 16:00 | IK Start v Fredrikstad FK | 2.33 | 3.55 | 3.21 |
| 9 Aug 12:30 | Lillestrom v Rosenborg | 2.48 | 3.64 | 2.89 |
| 9 Aug 17:15 | Kristiansund BK v Molde | 4.90 | 3.90 | 1.78 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.48, with a 39% confidence rating.
HamKam are the market favourites at 2.18, implying roughly a 46% chance of a home win. Aalesund are priced at 3.37, around 30% in probability terms.
The draw is available at 3.85 with Coolbet, which implies approximately a 26% chance of the game ending level.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.48 actually shows a negative edge of -4.24%, so it is a model lean rather than a clear value spot.
HamKam vs Aalesund takes place Sun · 15:00 in the Eliteserien.
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