Liga MX · Sat · 23:07 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Guadalajara's 1.41 price implies roughly a 71% win probability, reflecting a heavy market lean toward the hosts.
Querétaro's 6.25 odds imply only about 16% chance of an away win, underlining their outsider status.
The draw is priced at 4.6, implying close to 22%, a live but secondary outcome given the favourite's strength.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.28 carries a negative value edge of -7.37%, meaning the model does not see it as a genuine value bet despite the higher implied goal expectation.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.0% | 7.71 |
| 2-0 | 11.3% | 8.89 |
| 1-1 | 11.1% | 8.98 |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.35 |
| 0-0 | 7.5% | 13.37 |
| 3-0 | 6.5% | 15.38 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.73 and 0.86. These six scorelines cover 59% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · GUA | X | 2 · QUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE) | 1.41 | 4.60 | 6.25 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.41 | 4.60 | 6.25 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.36 | 4.35 | 6.00 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.33 | 4.20 | 5.75 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Guadalajara host Querétaro in a Liga MX fixture where the market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Best odds of 1.41 for the home side imply a win probability of roughly 71%, making them strong favourites, while Querétaro's 6.25 price points to just a 16% chance of an away win. The draw sits at 4.6, implying about 22%. Rather than backing the match result outright, the featured angle here is a goals market: Over 3.5 goals is priced at 2.28, which implies a probability near 44%, against a model confidence of 41%. That gap gives a value edge of -7.37%, meaning the model sees this price as slightly worse than fair rather than a clear opportunity, so it should be treated as a measured selection rather than a standout value play.
Verdict: The Over 3.5 goals pick at 2.28 reflects a moderate 41% model confidence but shows a negative value edge, so it is not a clear-cut value bet. It fits bettors comfortable with goal-line markets in lopsided fixtures, though the pricing suggests only a fair, not favourable, risk-reward balance.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sept 00:00 | Pachuca v Tijuana | 1.76 | 4.06 | 5.10 |
| 21 Sept 00:00 | Toluca v Santos Laguna | 1.27 | 7.60 | 11.00 |
| 21 Sept 02:10 | Querétaro v León | 2.72 | 3.60 | 2.74 |
| 26 Sept 01:00 | Atlante FC v Monterrey | 3.81 | 3.85 | 1.94 |
| 26 Sept 03:00 | Tijuana v Atlas | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| 26 Sept 23:00 | Cruz Azul v Toluca | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 27 Sept 01:00 | Tigres v Puebla | 1.50 | 4.70 | 6.00 |
| 27 Sept 01:00 | Santos Laguna v Pachuca | 3.45 | 3.55 | 1.93 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.28, with a 41% confidence rating.
Guadalajara are strong favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.41, which implies roughly a 71% chance of a home win.
The draw is priced at 4.6, implying an approximate 22% probability, well behind Guadalajara's implied chances.
No standout value picks were identified against the match-result market; the highlighted Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.28 actually shows a negative value edge of -7.37%, so it should be viewed as a moderate rather than a clearly favourable selection.
Guadalajara vs Querétaro takes place Sat · 23:07 in the Liga MX.
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