Eredivisie · Sun · 12:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Groningen are the market favourites at 2.40 (about 42% implied), edging FC Utrecht at 3.05 (about 33%).
The draw is priced at 3.60, implying roughly 28%, so the result market is relatively tight.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals sits at 2.04 with around 47% implied confidence.
That Under pick shows a negative value edge of -3.81%, so it screens slightly below fair value on our model.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.6% | 7.97 |
| 1-0 | 10.3% | 9.66 |
| 0-1 | 9.2% | 10.93 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 11.63 |
| 1-2 | 7.6% | 13.14 |
| 0-0 | 7.5% | 13.25 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.37 and 1.21. These six scorelines cover 56% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Groningen's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht | 3.00 | Tipico | 33.3% |
| Groningen | 2.43 | Unibet (NL) | 41.2% |
| Draw | 3.60 | Unibet (NL) | 27.8% |
This Eredivisie meeting sees Groningen host FC Utrecht, and the market gives the home side a modest edge. Groningen sit as favourites at 2.40, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 42%, while an away win for FC Utrecht is priced at 3.05, or about 33%. The draw at 3.60 sits at around 28%, so there is no overwhelming lean in either direction here. In short, the prices point to a fairly balanced contest with Groningen only slightly preferred. Our model's attention turns to the goals market rather than the result: Under 2.5 goals is available at 2.04, with market-implied confidence of about 47%. Note that this pick carries a negative value edge of -3.81%, meaning it screens marginally worse than fair price on our numbers. That is worth keeping in mind before deciding how, or whether, to stake it.
Verdict: The model leans to Under 2.5 goals at 2.04, reflecting an expectation of a lower-scoring game. However, the -3.81% edge means it is not priced in your favour, so treat this as a low-conviction angle. Stake modestly, if at all, and manage your bankroll sensibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 18:00 | SC Cambuur v Excelsior | 2.60 | 3.75 | 2.65 |
| 8 Aug 14:30 | NEC Nijmegen v SC Telstar | 1.52 | 5.10 | 7.50 |
| 8 Aug 16:45 | Go Ahead Eagles v Willem II | 1.71 | 4.30 | 5.00 |
| 8 Aug 18:00 | PSV Eindhoven v Fortuna Sittard | 1.24 | 8.60 | 14.50 |
| 8 Aug 19:00 | AZ Alkmaar v ADO Den Haag | 1.50 | 4.90 | 6.75 |
| 9 Aug 10:15 | Sparta Rotterdam v Feyenoord | 5.10 | 4.30 | 1.72 |
| 9 Aug 12:30 | FC Zwolle v Ajax | 7.00 | 4.80 | 1.52 |
| 9 Aug 14:45 | Heerenveen v FC Twente Enschede | 3.20 | 4.00 | 2.19 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.04, with a 47% confidence rating.
Groningen are the favourites at 2.40, an implied probability of about 42%. FC Utrecht are priced at 3.05, roughly 33%.
The draw is available at 3.60 with Coolbet, which implies approximately a 28% chance of the match ending level.
No pick cleared our value threshold. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 2.04 actually shows a negative edge of -3.81%, so it is not a value bet on our numbers.
Groningen vs FC Utrecht takes place Sun · 12:30 in the Eredivisie.
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