La Liga 2 · Sat · 14:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Granada CF are the market's narrow favourites at 2.32, implying roughly a 43% chance of victory
Andorra CF sit at 3.0 (about 33% implied), with the draw priced at 3.35 (around 30%), keeping the outcome market tightly bunched
The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.88 carries only 49% model confidence and a negative value edge of -8.31%, suggesting the odds are not favourable relative to the model's own estimate
The combined implied probabilities across win/draw/win exceed 100%, reflecting the standard bookmaker margin built into these prices
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 8.36 |
| 1-0 | 9.0% | 11.12 |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | 11.52 |
| 0-1 | 8.2% | 12.14 |
| 1-2 | 8.0% | 12.56 |
| 2-0 | 6.5% | 15.34 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.45 and 1.33. These six scorelines cover 52% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · GC | X | 2 · AC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE) | 2.32 | 3.35 | 3.00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.32 | 3.35 | 3.00 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.20 | 3.15 | 2.85 |
| PMU (FR) | 2.12 | 3.00 | 2.75 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Granada CF host Andorra CF in a La Liga 2 fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them overwhelming favourites. Granada CF are priced at 2.32 with Unibet (SE), which translates to an implied probability of roughly 43%, ahead of Andorra CF at 3.0 (about 33%) and the draw at 3.35 (around 30%). Those figures point to a fairly competitive match on paper, with no team standing out as a clear banker. Away from the result market, the model's featured angle for this game is Over 2.5 goals at 1.88, reflecting a expectation of an open, goal-friendly contest. That said, the model itself flags this selection with a market-implied confidence of only 49% and a negative value edge of -8.31%, meaning the price does not currently look generous relative to the estimated probability.
Verdict: The model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 1.88, but its own numbers show a negative value edge and sub-50% confidence, so this is not presented as a strong or value-backed play. Bettors considering it should treat it as a speculative angle rather than a confidently backed selection, and stake accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Leganés v Granada CF | 2.20 | 3.25 | 4.20 |
| 25 Sept 18:30 | Girona FC v Albacete | 1.58 | 4.54 | 5.75 |
| 26 Sept 12:00 | AD Ceuta FC v Real Sociedad B | 2.30 | 3.67 | 3.05 |
| 26 Sept 16:30 | Celta Fortuna v Sabadell FC | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.28 |
| 26 Sept 16:30 | Tenerife v Cádiz CF | 1.82 | 3.63 | 5.50 |
| 27 Sept 12:00 | Real Valladolid CF v Córdoba | 2.33 | 3.57 | 3.18 |
| 27 Sept 14:15 | Mallorca v Almería | 2.07 | 3.51 | 3.99 |
| 27 Sept 16:30 | Burgos CF v CD Eldense | 1.89 | 3.58 | 4.60 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.88, with a 49% confidence rating.
Granada CF are the market favourites at odds of 2.32 with Unibet (SE), implying roughly a 43% chance of winning, compared with about 33% for Andorra CF and 30% for the draw.
The draw is available at 3.35 with Unibet (SE), which implies an approximate 30% probability of the match ending level.
The site's model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 1.88, but reports only 49% confidence and a negative value edge of -8.31%, so no strong value picks are currently identified for this fixture.
Granada CF vs Andorra CF takes place Sat · 14:15 in the La Liga 2.
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