Süper Lig · Today · 17:01 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Goztepe are market favourites at 2.52, implying close to a 40 percent win probability, the shortest price of the three outcomes.
Çaykur Rizespor's 3.52 price implies roughly 28 percent, but the model's fair probability of 32 percent gives it the largest edge on the board at 14.35 percent.
The draw at 3.85 implies about 26 percent, with a fair probability of 28 percent and a modest 6.7 percent edge.
Goztepe's recommended bet carries an 8.41 percent edge, the second highest of the three, reflecting a mild but not extreme lean toward the home side.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.9% | 8.40 |
| 1-0 | 10.6% | 9.43 |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | 10.66 |
| 2-0 | 8.4% | 11.96 |
| 0-1 | 7.5% | 13.25 |
| 0-0 | 6.7% | 14.86 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.58 and 1.12. These six scorelines cover 55% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Çaykur Rizespor to win | 5.20 | +335.0% | 84% | 99 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · GOZ | X | 2 · ÇR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 95.00 | 8.00 | 1.13 |
| Coolbet | 250.00 | 12.75 | 1.05 |
| Winamax (FR) | 225.00 | 10.50 | 1.06 |
| Winamax (DE) | 250.00 | 12.00 | 1.03 |
| Unibet (SE) | 141.00 | 10.00 | 1.05 |
| Pinnacle | 4.42 | 1.56 | 5.20 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Goztepe host Çaykur Rizespor in a Süper Lig fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them overwhelming favourites. Best available prices have Goztepe at 2.52, which implies a probability of roughly 40 percent, while Çaykur Rizespor's 3.52 price points to about 28 percent, and the draw at 3.85 sits close behind at around 26 percent. Those numbers show a competitive spread rather than a lopsided contest. Our model's recommended bet is Goztepe to win at 2.52, built on a modelled confidence of 43 percent against the market's implied 40 percent, producing an 8.41 percent value edge. At the same time, the away side and the draw both carry their own value edges based on the fair-probability comparisons below, so this is a match where the pricing across all three outcomes deserves a look before staking.
Verdict: Goztepe to win at 2.52 is the model's top pick, supported by a modelled edge over the market price, but the confidence level of 43 percent still leaves considerable uncertainty. This is a moderate-risk single-result bet rather than a strong favourite play, and stake sizing should reflect that.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:00 | Amed SK v Besiktas JK | 1.01 | 80.00 | 300.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 8.80, with a 11% confidence rating.
Goztepe are priced as favourites at 2.52, implying roughly a 40 percent chance of victory, the shortest odds among the three match-result outcomes.
The draw is available at 3.85, which implies a probability of around 26 percent, slightly below the model's fair estimate of 28 percent.
According to the data, Çaykur Rizespor at 3.52 shows the largest edge of the three outcomes, 14.35 percent, since the model's fair probability of 32 percent exceeds the market's implied 28 percent.
Goztepe vs Çaykur Rizespor takes place Today · 17:01 in the Süper Lig.
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