Eredivisie · Sat · 16:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Go Ahead Eagles are favourites at 1.72 (about 58% implied), a sizeable gap over Willem II at 5.08 (about 20%).
The draw is priced at 4.3, implying near 23%, roughly in line with the underdog's chances.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.4 carries a -2.93% value edge, meaning it prices slightly worse than fair by the model's own read.
No value picks cleared the threshold against market consensus, suggesting limited standout edges in this fixture.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles | 1.71 | Unibet (NL) | 58.5% |
| Willem II | 5.00 | Unibet (NL) | 20.0% |
| Draw | 4.30 | Coolbet | 23.3% |
This Eredivisie fixture sees Go Ahead Eagles host Willem II, and the market leaves little doubt about which side it prefers. At 1.72, Go Ahead Eagles are priced as clear favourites, translating to an implied probability of roughly 58%. Willem II are the outsiders at 5.08, or about 20% in probability terms, with the draw sitting at 4.3, close to 23%. That spread points to a match the bookmakers see tilting firmly toward the home side, though the visitors' price still reflects a realistic chance of an upset. Our model steers away from the result market and instead flags Under 2.5 goals at 2.4 with 1xBet, carried at around 40% market-implied confidence. Notably, that pick shows a negative value edge of roughly -2.93%, so it is offered here as the model's leaning rather than a strong value play worth chasing hard.
Verdict: The model leans toward Under 2.5 goals at 2.4, reflecting about 40% implied confidence in a lower-scoring game. With a negative value edge of -2.93%, this is a modest lean rather than a value spot, so treat it cautiously and stake within your means.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 18:00 | SC Cambuur v Excelsior | 2.60 | 3.75 | 2.65 |
| 8 Aug 14:30 | NEC Nijmegen v SC Telstar | 1.52 | 5.10 | 7.50 |
| 8 Aug 18:00 | PSV Eindhoven v Fortuna Sittard | 1.24 | 8.60 | 14.50 |
| 8 Aug 19:00 | AZ Alkmaar v ADO Den Haag | 1.50 | 4.90 | 6.75 |
| 9 Aug 10:15 | Sparta Rotterdam v Feyenoord | 5.10 | 4.30 | 1.72 |
| 9 Aug 12:30 | Groningen v FC Utrecht | 2.43 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| 9 Aug 12:30 | FC Zwolle v Ajax | 7.00 | 4.80 | 1.52 |
| 9 Aug 14:45 | Heerenveen v FC Twente Enschede | 3.20 | 4.00 | 2.19 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.40, with a 40% confidence rating.
Go Ahead Eagles are the market favourites at 1.72, implying roughly a 58% chance. Willem II are outsiders at 5.08, around 20%.
The draw is priced at 4.3 with Betfair, which implies about a 23% probability of the game ending level.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 2.4 actually shows a negative edge of -2.93%, so it is a lean rather than a clear value bet.
Go Ahead Eagles vs Willem II takes place Sat · 16:45 in the Eredivisie.
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